It seems unlikely that the Quicken Loans National has evolved as Tiger Woods dreamed when the event was born as the AT&T National in 2007. What we will see this weekend at TPC Potomac is the weakest field on the PGA Tour since the 2017-‘18 season began with the Safeway Open in October.

It’s not hard to pick a favorite. Rickie Fowler, who has Quicken among his sponsors, is the only player in the current Hawley Ratings top 10 who is in the field, and he’d also be the only one from the top 20 were it not for Woods himself at no. 20.

It wasn’t always like this. In the inaugural 2007 season, the National had six of the world’s top 10 in its field, and plenty of other top names. Here’s what the field has looked like over a sampling of years:

• 2007 – Six of the top 10, 10 of the top 20, 28 of the top 50.
• 2010 – Two of the top 10, six of the top 20, 22 of the top 50.
• 2018 – One of the top 10, two of the top 20, 10 of the top 50.

If you want to go with who is playing well lately, Jimmy Walker, no. 50 in the ratings, might be the guy. The TPC runner-up made the top 10 in the Nelson and the top 20 in the Colonial, but was outside the top 50 in the U.S. Open. Francesco Molinari missed the cut at the TPC, then went first-second back-to-back in Europe and was 25th in the Open. Rookie Joaquin Niemann missed the cuts at the Nelson and FedEx but in between finished in the top 10 in the Colonial and Memorial.

Fowler was runner-up in the Masters and has one top-10 (Memorial) in five events since then; he’s been in the top 20 the last three. Woods has appeared 10 times this year with two top-10s (Valspar and Palmer), and two other top-20s. He was better earlier in the year than he has been recently.

The Hawley course fit statistics indicate that shots gained off the tee is by far the stat most highly correlated with success on TPC Potomac, with sand saves next. Charles Howell is the top player for the course based on his statistics profile, with Fowler second. JB Holmes, Molinari, and Byeong Hun An are others whose play is on the upswing and who look well-fit for the course.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Ryan Blaum, Brian Gay, and Kevin Tway are a quartet whose recent form is much better than what they showed previously. Interested in a veteran? Stewart Cink.

One of the things that the event has done to generate positive vibes about its field is to invite top young talent. Niemann would be the top player in that category. Among the Web.com graduates from last season, we are seeing some signs of promise from Nate Lashley and Denny McCarthy. McCarthy has made seven of the last eight cuts including top-20s at Puntacana, Texas, and the FedEx. Lashley has made the last two cuts and five of the last seven. You might consider Dylan Meyer, who was 20th in the U.S. Open but has three missed cuts in other spot appearances on the Tour within the last year. The All-American from Illinois turned pro this spring.