03
Jul

A look at the Military Tribute at the Greenbrier

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

The computer has three guys pretty tightly bracketed at the top this week in the PGA Tour event they are calling A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier. We’ll go with Webb Simpson as favorite based on his three top-10s in the last six times this event was played. Simpson, of course, won TPC in mid-May as the culmination of a three-month span in which he played seven other events with three top-10s, a top 20, two top 30s, and a top 40. He’s been just so-so recently, 10th in the U.S. Open bracketed by two missed cuts.

The other logical names at the top of the list are Phil Mickelson and Tony Finau. Mickelson, who frequently is seen on TV as a spokesperson for the Greenbrier resort, has played the event four times, making the cut only once, last year when he was 20th. In four months since winning the Mexico event, Mickelson has played eight times with a fifth in the Wells Fargo, three other top-20s, three others (including the season’s first two majors) in the top 50, and an ugly finish far below the cut line at TPC.

The long-hitting Finau is having a strong season, including top-10s in both the Masters and U.S. Open. Besides those two, he has been in the top 20 twice and the top 30 two other times going back nine events.

Greens in regulation and putting are the two stats that have correlated most closely with success on this course since the event’s inception. The player with the top statistical profile to fit the course is Kevin Streelman, and Charles Howell and Simpson follow closely behind. Others who appear to be good fits for the course include Brian Harman, Mickelson, Andrew Putnam, Rory Sabbatini, and Bubba Watson.

Possibly the hottest player coming in, measured by performance over the last four events compared to overall form, is JB Holmes. Holmes missed the cut last week following his finishes of second and third in the Travelers and the FedEx; and he had a top-20 immediately prior to that. Ryan Armour, runner-up last week, has made five cuts in a row, including a top-20 and a top-30. Also consider the veteran Brian Gay, who was in the top 10 last week and in the top 20 in three of the four appearances preceding that.

Among the lower-rated players trying to establish higher-level form are Fabian Gomez, with four made cuts in a row and including a top-20; Cameron Percy, ditto on the last four; and Alex Cejka, also four straight weekends but a best of 32nd.

Ethan Tracy, a 28-year-old Tour rookie from the University of Arkansas, has made six of the last seven cuts, with a best of 13th at the Nelson. Most of the rest were pretty close to the cut line, but, still ..

This is the eighth iteration of the event at Old White TPC in White Sulphur Springs WV; the 2016 edition was rained out. White Sulphur Springs is about 250 miles east and a bit south of Washington DC. Per Wikipedia via the Washington Post, during the Cold War, the Greenbrier resort was the site of the Emergency Relocation Center, intended to house and protect the U.S. Congress in the event of a nuclear attack.

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