This week we have the annual “Midwest major”, or you could call it the John Deere Classic. But if you are a Tour member from around Iowa, Illinois, or Wisconsin, this truly is the Midwest major, played at the TPC Deere Run in Moline IL. The course is just about two miles southwest of the Mississippi River, i.e. the border with Iowa, and maybe 85 miles south of the Wisconsin state line. The favorite, natch, is Zach Johnson, the only two-time (real) major winner from Cedar Rapids IA. Two steps behind him, the no. 3 pick is Steve Stricker, the only 12-time Tour winner from Edgerton WI. Throw in Troy Merritt from Spring Lake Park MN, young University of Illinois stars Nick Hardy and Dylan Meyer, add in some wives and kids, and we’re just a little short of a corn maze party. Hayride, anyone?

For variety, we have Italian Francesco Molinari as the no. 2 pick and Chilean teenage rookie Joaquin Niemann as the fifth pick.

All Johnson has done to deserve status as favorite is post six finishes in the top five (including the 2012 win) in the last seven years. He’s having kind of a quiet but solid season. After beginning to play regularly in March, he missed two cuts in May and made all the other 10, with one top-10 (Texas) and three top-20s, including 12th in the U.S. Open. He’s also near the top of the field in assessment of how his game fits what it takes to be successful on TPC Deere Run.

Three of Stricker’s victories came in this event, and in a row, 2008 thru 2010. He has played nine PGA Tour events in 2018, missed two cuts in April and made all the rest. He’s been in the top 20 at the Open, FedEx, and Valspar.

Don’t discount Merritt or Meyer. Merritt has just one missed cut going back nine events. He’s been in the top 20 three times in that span, including two weeks back in the National. Meyer has played four events this year and been in the top 20 twice, at the Open and National. Hardy was just above the cut line in his one 2018 appearance.

Among those carrying passports, Molinari ranks as the hottest with two wins and a second in his last four appearances – first in the BMW PGA (Euro) and National, second in the Italian (Euro). Niemann has come on like a ball of fire. Since turning pro after the Masters, he has eight appearances and half of them ended in the top 10 – that’s Texas, Colonial, Memorial, and last week at the Greenbrier. Those finishes are enough to clinch a spot in the FedEx Cup playoffs for the 19-year-old, meaning he’s got a Tour card for 2018-’19. “Maybe the best day of my life!” Niemann wrote on Twitter Sunday.

Per the Hawley course fit statistics, greens in regulation and putting are the top two stats (in that order) in correlation with success on this course. Kevin Streelman and Chez Reavie have stat profiles that are tops per those stats. Not far back is a pack that includes Johnson, Chris Kirk, Ryan Moore, and Johnson Wagner. Streelman is second on the Tour in GIR.

Molinari and Bryson DeChambeau are the two players in the field who have done most to raise their overall ratings in the last four appearances. Last month DeChambeau won the Memorial and had a top-10 at the Travelers. Also playing notably better recently are David Lingmerth, Ryan Blaum, and Kirk. Lingmerth has been in the top 20 twice in the last three appearances. Blaum’s missed cut last week ended a nice string of three events finishing 25th or better. Kirk was in the top 10 at the FedEx his last time out.

Meanwhile they have a pretty good field for the Euro event in Scotland as the boys get adjusted to Greenwich Mean Time for the British Open next week. In attendance at Gullane GC are Tommy Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, Phil Mickelson, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson, and other names that you would recognize.