16
Jul

A look at the Open Championship

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

The Royal & Ancient endows the title “Champion Golfer of the Year” on the winner of the Open Championship, or as we call it in the U.S., the British Open. When you look at the list of who has won that title, it starts to sink in that it’s not just hyperbole, it’s recognition of a truly outstanding player. Among the 14 players who have been winners this century, 11 are winners of multiple majors and/ or 10 or more professional events (see list below). And thus the obvious question: Who fits that description this week?

Perhaps Dustin Johnson or Justin Rose.

Johnson has not appeared since his third-place finish in the U.S. Open, giving him plenty of time to think about shooting 7-over on Saturday and blowing what looked like a highly probable win. And of course it was not his first failure to win when high on the leaderboard of a major. Nevertheless, you have to give the guy credit for strong and steady play this year. He has two wins (Champions and FedEx), six other top-10s (including the Masters), and only the Match Play as a finish outside the top 20 all year. Wow.

Rose has made all the cuts, won the Colonial, is working on a streak of four straight top-10s, and was 12th in the Masters, 10th in the U.S. Open. Unlike Johnson, he has four finishes outside the top 20.

Other guys who have been playing great lately include Paul Casey (won the Valspar, top-20 in both majors, runner-up in the Travelers last time out), Brooks Koepka (won the U.S. Open, made six straight cuts after recovering from a hand injury, Colonial runner-up), and Henrik Stenson (four top-10s, including both majors, in his last eight appearances).

Players farther down the list of top picks who have been displaying improved form recently include Ryan Armour (runner-up in the National and one other top-20 and two other top-30s among his last five appearances), Bronson Burgoon (runner-up in the Deere after a top-10 in the National two weeks earlier), Stewart Cink (2009 winner of this event who has two top-10s, including as runner-up in the Travelers, among his last three appearances), and Bryson DeChambeau (won the Memorial among five top-10s this year but withdrew from the Deere last week with a shoulder injury).

The top three statistical categories in correlation with success on the typical British Open course are driving distance, putting, and driving accuracy, per the Hawley course fit statistics. If you’re looking for a longshot, the player whose stat profile best matches those numbers is Kyle Stanley, one of the very most accurate players in the world. Two other strong matches are Emiliano Grillo and Chez Reavie. Among the big names, Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson, and Jason Day are solid.

Three notables who have played great in this event who are not making much news recently are Sergio Garcia, Zach Johnson, and Adam Scott. Garcia has four top-10s in the last eight British Opens. He also has four top-10s this season, including his last appearance, at the French Open; however he missed the cut at the Masters and U.S. Open and didn’t make the top 50 at TPC. Zach won this event in 2015 and has three other top-10s in the last seven years, plus eight straight made cuts. He has only one top-10 in 16 events this year, with six other top-20s, including his last three appearances. Scott has made the last eight cuts in this event with a string of four straight top-10s that ended in 2015. Scott has been all over the board this year, mid-pack at the Masters but missed the cut at the U.S. Open (his last appearance). He has one PGA top-10 (Nelson), and one in Asia, but also two other appearances where he didn’t make the top 100.

Not that it will get much attention this week, but there is a second PGA Tour event occurring, the Barbasol. It will be played at Keene Trace Golf Club, just outside Lexington KY. Chris Kirk is the computer pick based on his (relatively) high ranking of 80th in the Hawley Ratings plus solid recent play. Second-year Tour player Joel Dahmen comes in with back-to-back top-10s in the Greenbrier and Deere. Veterans Fabian Gomez and Brian Gay have shown improved play recently.

THIS CENTURY’S OPEN CHAMPIONS

Player Year 2+ majors 10+ pro wins
Stewart Cink 2009    
Darren Clarke 2011   x
Ben Curtis 2003    
David Duval 2001   x
Ernie Els 2012 x x
Ernie Els 2002 x x
Todd Hamilton 2004    
Padraig Harrington 2008 x x
Padraig Harrington 2007 x x
Zach Johnson 2015 x x
Rory McIlroy 2014 x x
Phil Mickelson 2013 x x
Louis Oosthuizen 2010   x
Jordan Spieth 2017 x x
Henrik Stenson 2016   x
Tiger Woods 2006 x x
Tiger Woods 2005 x x
Tiger Woods 2000 x x
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