The question this week is whether Dustin Johnson can put things back in order for the RBC Canadian Open a week after not quite making the top 100 finishers in the 147th Open Championship. Luckily we have some historical data to work with on this one.

Last year Johnson had an abysmal June, missing the cuts in the Mermorial and U.S. Open. Then he skipped all intervening events until the British Open five week later, and finished just above the cut line. So, the answer to the question: From the U.K. it was direct to Toronto where he finished eighth in the Canadian Open. In fact he has made it a habit of doing the British-Canadian double, and a pretty good habit at that. Johnson has played in Canada in four of the last five years and was second in both 2013 and 2016, eighth as noted last year, and missed the cut in 2014. So yeah, not much evidence of a hangover after a bad week. Also recall that after bombing out of the WGC-Match Play in late March, he came back after a week off to finish 10th in the Masters.

The field at Glen Abbey this week, of course, is nothing like the British Open, U.S. Open, Masters, Memorial, etc., and Johnson as no. 1 player in the world appears to merit the tag as favorite. Not that he is the only one in the field with more than a few birdies this season. You can make a very good case for Tony Finau, the no. 2 pick, and others among the top 20 picks who stand out due to excellent recent play include rookie Joaquin Niemann and and veteran Charley Hoffman.

Finau has top-10s in all three majors, including a ninth last week. Niemann, the 19-year-old Chilean, has an amazing four top-10s in only nine appearances since turning pro, plus two others in the top 25. Hoffman has been flirting with the big money but not quite collecting it; he finished between 15th and 20th in his last four appearances, including the last two majors. Also in the field are Englishman Tommy Fleetwood, 19th in the Hawley Ratings this week, and the top Canadian (of course) Adam Hadwin, who is 49th.

They are at Glen Abbey, about 20 miles southwest of Toronto, down the Lake Ontario coast line, this week, the fourth year in the row that this sometimes-moveable event has been there. The course has over 100 bunkers and Glen Abbey is one of the 10 percent or so of courses where the statistical category that is most highly correlated with success is sand saves. Correlated to a lesser extent are greens in regulation and driving distance. This combination of stats yields an atypical set of guys whose games are best-fitted to the course. Tops is Ben Crane, the Tour leader in sand saves. Not far behind are Rory Sabbatini, Seamus Power, and Rob Oppenheim. Also you could consider 2013 Canadian champ Brandt Snedeker, Alex Cejka, Johnson Wagner, and Scott Stallings.

Another rookie, Joel Dahmen, is starting to draw some attention with his second sequence of nice finishes this year – he was fifth in the Greenbrier, runner-up in the Deere, and then 15th in the late-concluding Barbasol. In the spring he had another string of three straight top-20s at the Wells Fargo, Nelson, and Colonial. Bronson Burgoon has missed the cut five times in his last nine outings, however he mixed in top-10s at the Deere and Nelson. The popular Harold Varner has back-to-back top-10s in the Deere and Greenbrier.

Jhonattan Vegas, who won this event the last two years, is having a lousy season. His last top-10 was in the first event of 2018, the Champions. He’s missed five cuts and hasn’t been close to the top 20 since finishing 20th at the WGC-Mexico event in March. Let’s say that the hat trick would be quite a surprise.