Jul
A look at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
— Justin Rose withdrew on Wednesday due to back spasms. —
When they started the World Golf Championships in 1999, the stated objective was to get the world’s top players into distinctive events that were built on joint sanctioning by the five major tours (Australasia, Europe, Japan, South Africa, U.S.). They can consider that a success, with this week’s WGC-Bridgestone Invitational merely the most recent example. In the top 10 picks, we have players who started out on four of those five tours, and at the top we have the two hottest players in the world, coming from the two sides of the Atlantic.
Of course that is Justin Rose, the top pick this week, and Dustin Johnson, fresh off his third win of the season. Here’s how they stack up over the last three months:
Rose | Johnson | |
---|---|---|
Canadian, July 29 | Won | |
British Open, July 22 | 2nd | 104th |
Scottish, July 15 | 9th | |
U.S. Open, June 17 | 10th | 3rd |
FedEx, June 10 | Won | |
Memorial, June 3 | 6th | 8th |
Colonial, May 27 | Won | |
TPC, May 13 | 23rd | 17th |
The edge goes to Rose, who has performed better in this event over the years and who lacks the blemish Johnson shows on his record for the weekend of July 22.
For many years, this event was the semi-private prowling grounds of Tiger Woods. In the 19 years that the event has been played, Tiger has eight wins, four other top-10s, three lesser appearances, and four years of absence. Not just coincidentally, the South course at Firestone Country Club has a reputation (that is strongly backed up by the Hawley course fit statistics) for favoring the big hitter who can scramble to the green. Those two stats are well ahead of the others in correlation with success here, regardless whether Tiger is in town. At age 41, Woods is merely in the top 15% in driving distance among U.S. and Euro players and the top 5% in scrambling. That leaves him just slightly behind the top eight in the field in terms of how their game fits the course. Tops is Rory McIlroy, who is in the top 2% in driving and top 5% in scrambling. Close behind are Jason Day and Johnson. Then come Justin Thomas, Louis Oosthuizen, Rickie Fowler, and Paul Casey.
Some names you may not have heard with great frequency this summer but who have been lifting their games include Xander Schauffele and Euro Tour players Thorbjorn Olesen, Tyrrell Hatton, and Alexander Bjork. Among players based on this side of the ocean, the hottest include the aforementioned Rose and Schauffele plus Francesco Molinari, Zach Johnson, Oosthuizen, Tony Finau, and Dustin Johnson. Lots to picks from!
There is always a second event with a much smaller purse and fewer FedEx Cup points available opposite these WGC events. This week it is the Barracuda Championship in Reno NV, where the Stapleford scoring system is used. Instead of adding up strokes, points are awarded for birdies, eagles, etc., and smaller numbers subtracted for bogeys, double bogeys, etc. The object is to encourage the guys to go for the low scores even if it’s risky.
A player on the rise recently is the pick in this one. It’s Joel Dahmen. He’s 30, a Washington state native, and a one-time University of Washington golfer who’s worked his way up thru the lesser tours. He has four lifetime top-10s on the PGA Tour and three of them were in the last month – fifth at the Greenbrier, second at the Deere, and eighth last week against a tougher field in the Canadian. The highest-ranked players in the Hawley Ratings are the next three sequentially in the picks – Beau Hossler (76th), Martin Laird (72nd), and Kevin Streelman (66th). Down the list a bit but playing well lately is Mackenzie Hughes, who has made five cuts in a row with two top-20s and a top-10 (Canadian).