Aug
A look at the Northern Trust
You’ve got to hand it to the PGA Tour pros – it’s a long, grinding season but these guys know how to manage their schedules and get into form for the end of the season. Tiger Woods put it this way to the Golf Channel: “It’s about pacing myself and making sure I don’t practice too much, don’t overdo it and make sure my training schedule goes well. One of the hardest things this year has been finding the right balance. As the summer has gone on, I’ve gotten better and felt better. This is a pretty important stretch.”
Here is a list of 10 who have gotten better and presumably feel better heading into the Northern Trust, first event of the FedEx Cup series. (First, a note. The Hawley Ratings give each player a number for each event based on his finish and on who else is playing; a high finish in an event with a top field gets a premium rating. These are the players who come into the Northern Trust with the highest average finish across their past four appearances.) Start with the best:
Tiger Woods – Second in the PGA, 31st in the Bridgestone, sixth in the British, fourth in the National.
Francesco Molinari – Sixth in the PGA, 39th in the Bridgestone, won the British, second in the Deere.
Justin Rose —19th in the PGA, second in the British, ninth in the Scottish (Euro event), 10th in the U.S. Open.
Justin Thomas – Sixth in the PGA, won the Bridgestone, missed cut in British, eighth in France (Euro event).
Patrick Cantlay – 27th in the PGA, sixth in the Bridgestone, 12th in British, 15th in Travelers.
Webb Simpson – Second in Wyndham, 19th in PGA, 24th in Bridgestone, 12th in British.
Jason Day – 19th in PGA, 10th in Bridgestone, 17th in British, 12th in Travelers.
Tommy Fleetwood – 35th in PGA, 14th in Bridgestone, sixth in Canadian, 12th in British.
Dustin Johnson – 27th in PGA, third in Bridgestone, won Canadian, missed cut in British.
Brooks Koepka – Won PGA, fifth in Bridgestone, missed cut in Canadian, 39th in British.
Beyond that group, here is another set of six players whose performances over the last four events have done the most to improve their overall rating, in order: Harold Varner, Zach Johnson, Kevin Kisner, Joel Dahmen, Gary Woodland, and Rafa Cabrera Bello. Varner had back-to-back top-10s in the Deere and Greenbrier. Zach has been in the top 20 in his last six starts (no top-10s, however). Kisner was runner-up in the British and 12th in the PGA. Dahmen had top-10s in the Canadian and Deere. Woodland was sixth in the PGA and 17th in the Bridgestone. Cabrera Bello was 11th in the Wyndham, 10th in the PGA, and 17th in the Bridgestone.
Ridgewood Country Club in Paramus NJ, just over the George Washington Bridge and a few miles west into New Jersey from the Bronx and Yonkers, is hosting this event for the fourth time in 11 years. The 89-year-old course provides little bias toward any particular skill area, with driving distance and greens in regulation being the stats most strongly (but not real strongly) correlated with success, per the Hawley course fit analytics. Also note that it is playing a slightly different configuration than in prior events, with holes this week selected from each of the three nines in everyday use at the club.
The players whose stat profiles indicate that they are the best fits for the course are mostly the big names – Dustin Johnson, Day, Thomas, Luke List, Tony Finau, Rose, Charles Howell, and Seamus Power, in that order.
Winners on this course in the three previous FedEx Cup events were Vijay Singh in 2008, Matt Kuchar in 2010, and Hunter Mahan in 2014. Kuchar is the only one of those who is here this week.