Justin Rose makes his first appearance of 2019 this weekend at the recently renamed Desert Classic in La Quinta CA. He’s been out of action since kind of a nothing finish (17th) against a really weak field in the BNI Indonesian Masters in mid-December. But, boy, if he starts up the way he finished in the three months prior to that, he will be a formidable presence out in the southern California desert.

And it’s not like he will be facing a loaded field. Patrick Cantlay is the only other member of the current Hawley Ratings top 10 in the field, and out of the next 10 there is only Jon Rahm and Phil Mickelson, both former winners here. From the top 50, there are 12 players here for this event, including the previously mentioned four.

Rose finished in the top 10 in seven straight events, including the win at the Turkish Airlines, with two seconds, two thirds, and a fourth, from September to the Indonesia event. It was a run that lifted him up from sixth in the Hawley Ratings at the end of August to third before the Indonesia hiccup. He’s no. 1 in the Official World Golf Ratings. Rose has not played this event often, his last appearance being a missed cut in 2010. His best showing was third in 2007.

The second choice is Cantlay, working on a string of three straight top-10s (HSBC Champions, Shriners, World Challenge). Others for whom it is easy to make a plausible case include:

Adam Hadwin – Shot a 59 at La Quinta two years ago; had three top-10s during the fall.
Ryan Palmer – Has a great record here (two top-10s and three top-20s in the last six years), and back-to-back top-10s to wrap up 2018.
Scott Piercy – Closed out 2018 with three straight top-10s; made both cuts without much distinction in Hawaii.
JJ Spaun – Showed significantly improved play during the fall.

Some of the less prominent players who appear on the upswing include Denny McCarthy, CT Pan, and Richy Werenski.

CareerBuilder backed out as the title sponsor about 10 weeks ago, leaving the event once known as the Bob Hope Desert Classic as the rare but not unheard-of Tour stop without a title sponsor. A shifting set of courses in the area around PGA West has been used over the years, and this year it’s the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club.

Trying to figure out what style of play fits is iffy when the event uses multiple courses. Over the last few years, putting, scrambling, and driving distance have been the stats most closely associated with success, per the Hawley course fit statistics. A 23-year-old Australian named Cameron Davis has the game best-matched with those stats, based on play since the Tour Championship last fall. Wyndham Clark, another rookie, looks like a good match for these courses, and Rose does too. Among the big names, defending champion Rahm and Mickelson are good fits. In Mickelson’s case, this is counter-balanced by some very mediocre play the last few times out. He hasn’t appeared since early October.