They could put together a threesome of the top three players in the Official World Golf Ratings who are entered in this week’s Farmers Insurance Open (Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele, and Jon Rahm). Or how about a trio of three crowd-pleasing, photogenic stars right around the age of 30 (Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, and Rory McIlroy)? Those groups would attract nice galleries to follow them around the Torrey Pines North and South courses. But, guaranteed, however they are grouped, nothing will approach the crowds that will be following Tiger Woods.

The 43-year-old former world no. 1 will step up to the first tee on the South course at 10:40a PST Thursday, and the crowd will be 10 deep and lined all the way down the fairway. Few will care that it’s been a fall and winter without distinction for Woods since he won the Tour Championship in September. You may recall that he was 0-4 in the Ryder Cup, lost that exhibition match to Phil Mickelson, and finished near the bottom in the World Challenge in December. So, it’s a question of whether and when he can win again.

Before the World Challenge, Woods told pgatour.com, “The expectations are much different this upcoming year. Now I know that I can do it, now it’s just about managing and making sure I’m fresh for events, because I know I can win tournaments again.” Of course, you would expect nothing less than confidence from Woods.

Although he will be the crowd favorite and has won at Torrey Pines eight times over the past 20 years, including the memorable 2008 U.S. Open, Woods should not be considered the favorite to win this week. The numbers point to Day, who is a statistical good fit for the courses and has been in the top 20 in each of his last five appearances going back to the Tour Championship. His best was a fifth in the CJ Cup in Korea in October.

A good case can be made for Patrick Cantlay, who is working on a streak of four straight top-10s over the last 12 weeks – ninth last week at the Desert Classic, fifth in the World Challenge, second in the Shriners, and seventh in the HSBC Champions. The highest-ranked player in the field, Rose, is coming off two mediocre outings, barely inside the top 40 last week at the Desert Classic and 17th against a very soft field in the Indonesian in December.

You might also ask Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama if the food has been bad or what. Spieth hasn’t been in the top 50 of any of four events since the Dell on Labor Day weekend. Matsuyama has no top-10 and only two top-20s in six appearances since the Tour Championship.

On the plus side, consider Marc Leishman, with four straight in the top five, including two already this year, third in the Sony and fourth in the Champions. Also in good form is Rahm, with four straight top-10s since mid-November, including the World Challenge win. Schauffele (paired with Woods in the first two rounds) has two wins in the last four times out (Champions in January and HSBC Champions in October), plus a top-10 in the World Challenge.

As with last week’s Desert Classic, trying to figure out what style of play fits the event is iffy when multiple courses are used. Over the last few years, driving distance has been the stat most closely associated with success on the Torrey Pines North and South courses, per the Hawley course fit statistics, and scrambling and sand saves also are well-correlated.

Among the big names, McIlroy has the game best-matched to those stats. Rookies Cameron Davis and Cameron Champ rank slightly better, and Day, Tony Finau (also paired with Tiger), Rose, and the little-known rookie Wyndham Clark are just behind.