The world’s most famous island green, not to mention the world’s second-largest purse, will be in play this weekend as 49 of the world’s top 50 golfers go on display at the TPC Sawgrass in northeast Florida. After examining two years of results, recent form, fit for the course, and past performance in this event, the computer that is the brains behind alookatgolf.com was unable to separate Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas. Thus they are co-favorites per the Dell Precision M4800.

If you carry it out to the fourth decimal place, there is a slight edge to McIlroy, who also was the pick last week but disappointed his fans by leaving the Palmer Invitational in sixth place after an even-par fourth round.

The signature hole at TPC Sawgrass, of course, is the 137-yard 17th, a nice, wide par-three that is surrounded by water everywhere except for a path at the back. The 17th provides thrills for spectators, but from a broader perspective, this is a driver’s course. The stat most closely associated with success here over the past eight tournaments is driving distance, and it is one of the stronger

correlations during the PGA Tour season. Also well correlated is driving accuracy. In other words, it’s best to hit it long and straight. Per the Hawley course fit statistics, Louis Oosthuizen has a stats profile that indicates he is the best fitted player in the field for TPC Sawgrass, and by a large margin of almost half a stroke per round over no. 2 Gary Woodland. Woodland has better than a quarter-stroke lead over Justin Rose, Charles Howell, Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson, and the rest of the players.

Oosthuizen is above the 95th percentile of U.S./ Euro players in driving distance and around the 70th percentile in accuracy.

McIlroy could be excused for beIng a little edgy after having been in a final pairing in the final round of a tournament and failing to win nine times in a row over a two-year span. After dropping to sixth at the Palmer, McIlroy told irishtimes.com, “I’m playing well, I would much rather be putting myself in position to have a chance to win. I’m playing good golf, it doesn’t matter if I’m playing that golf on Thursday, Friday, Saturday; yeah, my Sundays haven’t been what I would have liked, but I’m putting myself in that position, so good golf is good golf, I keep saying that, at the end of the day.” He has done just about everything except win on the Tour this year. In five events, he has a runner-up finish (WGC Mexico), two fourths, a fifth, and last week’s sixth. He’s in the top 10% of players in driving distance but outside the top half in accuracy.

Thomas had a streak almost as good as McIlroy’s that ended when he finished 30th in the Honda earlier this month. Before that he had four top-10s and a top-20 in the five prior appearances. Thomas is just outside the top quarter of players in driving distance and in the middle third in accuracy.

Also coming into the event with solid recent play are some familiar names. Lucas Glover, on the way back up after some lean years, has three straight top-10s. The veteran Howell, 19th on the all-time PGA Tour money list, has four top-10s (including the win at the RSM last fall) and four top-20s in his last nine appearances. Watson finished fourth at Phoenix and has been in the top 30 the last three times out. Woodland had five top-10s in a stretch of six appearances before a top-10 at WGC Mexico and a top-40 at the Honda. Jason Kokrak has back-to-back top-10s in the Honda and Palmer and had a streak of three straight top-20s early this winter.

Although there are truly no unknowns in this event, some of the lesser-knowns have been playing strong recent golf. Michael Thompson, ranked 63rd, spoiled a streak of five straight top-20s when he missed the cut by a stroke in the Palmer. Keith Mitchell, ranked 78th, won the Honda and then made it look like less of a fluke by finishing sixth at the Palmer. Trey Mullinax, ranked 132nd, has seven straight made cuts, with a best of 15th at Phoenix. Sung Kang, ranked 105th, was sixth last week, in the top 20 at Pebble Beach, and has made the cut six out of seven times in 2019.

Among those who are far off previous form are Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Rose, Webb Simpson, and Jordan Spieth. Spieth is a free-falling 23rd in the ratings but none of the others is worse than 13th. In 2019, among them, in 24 appearances, they have four top-10s (including Rose’s win at the Farmers), three more top-20s, 13 finishes farther back, and four missed cuts. Not pretty.

The only player missing from the Hawley Ratings top 50 is Kevin Chappell, who had back surgery late last fall. The June U.S. Open has the top purse in golf.