For multiple reasons, but especially because he is having by far the best season of any professional golfer anywhere, Rory McIlroy stands at the forefront this week as he tries to win his first Masters. If he does so, he’ll join Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Gary Player, Gene Sarazen, and Tiger Woods as the only players ever to win a career grand slam. McIlroy certainly could not have done much more to demonstrate readiness to win than he has this year. He has seven appearances in 2019, all in PGA Tour events, and has finished sixth or better in all of them, winning the Players Championship, which boasts the strongest field of any event in the world.

So is he ready to win the green jacket? “I’ve had 10 years of learning at Augusta, some tough times,” McIlroy told the New York Post. “And if one day I’m able to get that green jacket at the end of 72 holes, all of those experiences will have played a part in helping me do that.”

Some courses seem to offer better opportunities to players with certain characteristics. Other courses

offer little advantage despite the players’ various strengths. Augusta National is among the former. It shows the greatest bias toward driving distance as a statistical indicator of success of any event on the PGA Tour. Per the Hawley course fit statistics, driving distance is far and away the stat most heavily correlated with success on the course over the past eight Masters. Shots gained around the green and scrambling are the two next most significant but at less than half the weight.

McIlroy is tops among the contenders and third overall in the field when measured by how his game aligns with those stats. Among all U.S. and Euro players, he is in the top three percent in driving distance, top four percent in scrambling, and top 20% in shots gained around the green.

Two longshots in the field have even better profiles. Haotong Li, a 23-year-old PGA Tour player from China, is first. He’s in the top 10% in driving distance, no. 1 in scrambling, and in the top five percent in shots gained around the green. Justin Harding, a 32-year-old Euro Tour player from South Africa, is in the top half in driving distance, no. 2 in scrambling, and in the top two percent in shots gained around the green.

As always, the field is top-heavy with the world’s finest players. However the strength of field among players outside the top 40 is far weaker than in events such as TPC, the U.S. Open, and the PGA. All the top 30 from the current Hawley Ratings are in attendance, but just over half of the next 30 are here, and only 10 of those between 61 and 90. Jim Furyk is the top-rated player not in the field.

Among the other logical contenders:
Tommy Fleetwood has two top-10s and two top-20s in eight appearances in North America and the Middle East in 2019.
Dustin Johnson has returned to the no. 1 position in the world rankings with a great season, rivalling McIlroy’s, including wins at the World Golf Championships Mexico event and the Saudi Euro Tour event. He’s been in the top 10 six times in nine appearances. He’s been in the top 10 in his last three Masters (not counting 2017 when he withdrew one minute before his tee time after injuring his back in a fall). He’s also a great fit for the course.
Francesco Molinari merits consideration based on his win at the Palmer and a third-place finish in the Match Play.
Justin Rose is a good statistical fit for the course and has played well here, despite never winning. He lost in the 2017 playoff with Sergio Garcia. He was also the runner-up in 2015 and has two other top-10 finishes here in the current decade. This year he won the Farmers and has a top-10 in TPC in six appearances.
Justin Thomas is not playing particularly well recently. He had a nice string of six straight top-20 finishes from December thru February but hasn’t been in the top 20 in three tries since then. Like others, he is a very good fit for the course.
Tiger Woods has played solidly and is a good fit for the course. He has five appearances this year and was in the top 20 in four of them and in the top 10 in the two World Golf Championships events. The fifth-place finish in the Match Play event was his best showing. Can you believe it’s 22 years since the first of his four Masters wins?

Here’s some commentary on others you might want to consider:
Matthew Fitzpatrick, the Palmer runner-up, is a good fit for the course and has a Euro top-10 this year.
Justin Harding, noted above.
Kevin Kisner won the Match Play and had six straight finishes in the 20s prior to that.
Brooks Koepka is a great fit for the course and handles the big stage with ease, but he’s having an unremarkable year to say the least, other than being runner-up at the Honda. He has four finishes outside the top 50.
Haotong Li, noted above.
Patrick Reed, the defending champion, hasn’t played well (zero top-10s, three top-20s in 10 appearances) but obviously the course works for him.
Sergio Garcia won in 2017 and has five top-10s this year in a mixture of PGA and Euro events. He’s at best a mediocre fit for the course (top quarter in driving distance, bottom third in scrambling, bottom 10% in shots gained around the green).
Matt Wallace is a great fit for the course and has two top-10s and two top-20s (one of each on the Euro Tour) this year.