Usually the pre-event focus at a big PGA Tour event is the top player or two – Tiger? Rory? DJ? – but in the case of this week’s PGA Championship, the players need to share the spotlight with the course itself, the Bethpage State Park Black Course.

Bethpage Black has become legendary for the notoriety gained in four events staged there this century and for the iconic signage near the first tee (“WARNING. The Black Course Is An Extremely Difficult Course Which We Recommend Only For Highly Skilled Golfers”). Well, yeah. It’s located in the central part of Long Island, about 20 miles northeast of JFK International Airport.

The logical favorite is Rory McIlroy, having a great season. McIlroy has played nine events this season, won TPC, and been in the top 10 of all the others except the Masters, where he was 21st. The crowd favorite will be Tiger Woods, who will be followed by massive galleries after his stunning Masters victory last month. He hasn’t competed since then. In six starts this year, he has the one win and top-10s in the two WGC events.

The four Tour events played at Bethpage this century are the 2002 U.S. Open (won by Woods by three strokes), 2009 U.S. Open (Lucas Glover by two), 2012 Barclays (Nick Watney by three), and 2016 Barclays (Patrick Reed by one). Per the Hawley course fit statistics, by far the no. 1 statistic in correlation with success on Bethpage Black in these events has been driving distance. Second is putting, and the others are much farther back. No surprise. Bethpage Black plays at 7,459 yards, and after all the moisture that the course has absorbed recently, the players will get little help in terms of bounce and roll.

It was wet on Monday when many showed up for practice rounds, but the complaints were few. Dustin Johnson, the world no. 1, told Newsday, “I know it’s had a lot of rain, but the greens are fairly dry. I was surprised how dry it was. The fairways are soft. You’re not really getting any roll, but it’s not muddy. It’s been great. And the greens are unbelievable. They’re perfect.”

There is a 50-50 chance of rain on Friday, per weather.com, and the other days are all in the 10 to 20 percent chance range.

With his distance (top 20 percent of U.S./ Euro players) and putting (top 15 percent), Johnson ranks among the top dozen or so players in the field in the extent to which his statistical profile matches what has been successful on Bethpage Black. Tops is Justin Rose (top 20 percent in driving, top 1 percent in putting), with McIlroy (top 10% in driving, top 3 percent in putting) just a shade back. The next three in ranking by course fit are a little lesser-known: Thomas Pieters, Cameron Champ, and Julian Suri.

Other big names who have what appears to be the right fit for this course include Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Rickie Fowler, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, and Xander Schauffele. Also consider Kurt Kitayama and Luke List. Guys you’ve heard of who are among the worst fits are Jim Furyk, Jason Dufner, and Henrik Stenson.

Even with the presence of 20 club pros in the field, the PGA almost always has the second-strongest field (after TPC) of any event in the world. Thus there is no shortage of contenders. Justin Thomas withdrew Monday due to lingering effects of a wrist injury. Other than that, everyone in the Hawley Ratings world top 50 is in the field, not to mention 87 of the top 100.

Among those coming in with great form in recent events are Matt Kuchar, Sergio Garcia, and Kevin Kisner. In his last four appearances, Kuchar was runner-up at the Heritage and Match Play, in the top 10 at Texas, and 12th at the Masters. Garcia likewise has three top-10s in the last four apeparances (but an unsightly finish outside the top 50 at the Masters). Kisner won the Match Play and was in the top 10 at the Zurich.

McIlroy and Woods, of course, both show great recent play. Others include Paul Casey, Scott Piercy, Ian Poulter, and Jon Rahm. Names you might not think of with good recent play include Joel Dahmen (Wells Fargo runner-up and two other top-20s in his last five appearances), Justin Harding (10th in the Nelson, 12th in the Masters), and Graeme McDowell (Puntacana winner and top-10 at Texas).

Guys have a way of working themselves back into shape, but a few of those who would like to rewind a month or two and re-do those events with a better display of skill include Finau, Charles Howell, Mickelson, and Patrick Reed. Among them, going back to TPC, they have 23 appearances with one top-10 (Finau at the Masters) and one top-20 (Mickelson at the Masters). That’s it.