How’s this for a trifecta? Nate Lashley, Doc Redman, and a dead heat for show between Wes Roach and Rory Sabbatini.

Of course you recognize that as the final leaderboard at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. No knock on any of those guys, and Sabbatini would have ranked as a solid pick last week, but it had to go down as a surprising finish. What it’s got to do with this week’s 3M Open in Blaine MN is that for the second week in a row the PGA Tour is presenting a first-time event on what looks like kind of a soft track with kind of a below-average field, and just about anything can happen.

So, in that spirit, we’ll take two looks at the event – the logical look, and the anything-can-happen look.

Start by noting that TPC Twin Cities, located about 30 miles due north from the Mall of America, was the site of a Champions Tour event for many years until a main-tour event was awarded. Among the 50-plus crowd, the average winning score was 17-under. Now they have toughened it up a bit. “The length, for me it’s a totally different golf course than it was before,” longtime Tour pro and Minnesotan Tim Herron told Jerry Zgoda of the Star-Tribune. “Brooks Koepka might not think it’s a such a big deal because he hits it so far but for me, it’s a lot longer.”

Per startribune.com, there are new trees, bunkers, and tee boxes. Rough encroaches some areas that formerly were fairways.

Okay. But nobody expects anything but low scores.

And speaking of Koepka, that’s a good place to start with the logical look at the event. Koepka, the top-rated player in the field, has been very good in the majors and a different player in his other appearances over the last few months. He was second in the Masters, won the PGA, and was second again in the U.S. Open. In other appearances over the last four months, he has a top-10 in the Nelson and six finishes outside the top 40.

Jason Day is the only other player in the field from the current Hawley Ratings top 10. He’s been up and down too, with three top-10s (the best being fifth at the Masters), nothing else in the top 20, three missed cuts, and a withdrawal in his last 11 appearances.

The field includes three others from the rankings top 20 – Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, and Bryson DeChambeau, in that order, and the only one who’s happy about things in the spring and summer on the Tour is Matsuyama.

That said, remember that anything can happen and consider these guys, presented in Hawley Ratings order:

Viktor Hovland is a 21-year-old from Norway whose pro career stretches all the way back two events. He’s played three other 2019 Tour events as an amateur and has made all cuts with two top-20s. He was 32nd at the Masters.
Sungjae Im is a 21-year-old Tour rookie from South Korea. He’s made 20 of 28 cuts this season with six top-10s. The last three times out, he was seventh at the Canadian and then 21st two events in a row.
Joaquin Niemann is a 20-year-old Chilean. Yeah, younger than the two guys immediately above. He didn’t do much this year until the last month and a half. He had back-to-back top-10s in the Travelers and Rocket and had three straight finishes above 40th prior to that.
Zack Sucher is a 32-year-old from the University of Alabama who has bounced around various tours. In the last three months he’s gone from 2045th in the world rankings to 151st, mostly by finishing second in the Travelers and making a couple of other cuts.
Wes Roach, noted at the top of this narrative, was third last week and 11th at the Canadian. He also has three missed cuts and a bunch of mid-pack finishes this year.
Sebastian Munoz is a 26-year-old Colombian who had back-to-back appearances of 10th in the Nelson and 11th in the Canadian. Two more recent appearances resulted in missed cuts.
Stephan Jaeger is a 30-year-old German who attended Tennessee-Chattanooga. He hit a career high in rating number and rating rank a few weeks back with a three-event stretch of two top-20s and a top 30.
Joey Garber is a 27-year-old Tour rookie from the University of Georgia who’s picked up his game a bit. He had a top-10 at Puerto Rico and more recently has made five of the last seven cuts, mostly just into the top 30.
Collin Morikawa is a 22-year-old Californian who turned pro last month after an amateur career that included a no. 1 ranking among world amateurs. He’s made three straight cuts as a PGA Tour pro, all in the top 40 and with a best of 14th in the Canadian.

So, take your pick.