They are down to the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup and the site this week is Medinah Country Club, located just over 20 miles west of Wrigley Field in the Chicago northwest metro area. Tiger Woods won’t have any trouble remembering where it is or what the course is like – he won the last two PGA Tour events played on the No. 3 course there (and was terrible there in the 2012 Ryder Cup).

Woods coasted home by five strokes over Shaun Micheel in the 2006 PGA and won the 1999 PGA by one over Sergio Garcia. In the 2012 Ryder Cup, Woods went 0-3-1, where he and playing partner Steve Stricker were the only Americans who did not win a match. After withdrawing from last week’s Northern Trust due to a mild oblique strain, it would be quite a reach to call Woods one of the favorites this weekend, regardless of the PGA Championship successes of prior decades. However, he was on site at Medinah Tuesday and confirmed that he would play. “I feel good,” Woods told espn.com. “Feel a lot better than I felt last week. Felt good this morning, so I thought I’d give it a go.” Woods is 38th in FedEx Cup points, and only the top 30 will move on to the Tour Championship, a title Woods won last year. He needs to finish solo 11th or better to be assured of moving into the top 30.

The world top two per the Hawley Ratings appear to be the favorites here. That’s no. 1 Rory McIlroy and no. 2 Justin Rose. Rose gets a slight edge based on better play this summer, and he has the best record of any player in the field in the BMW Championship. (Granted, this event moves around from venue to venue and never has been played here previously.) Rose has two top-10s (Northern Trust and U.S. Open) and three top-20s in his last five appearances.

Among other logical favorites, Jon Rahm and Webb Simpson come into the event with good recent success. Rahm has a win (Irish Open), a second, two thirds, a seventh, and an 11th in his last six appearances. Simpson has been the runner-up three times (Wyndham, FedEx St. Jude, Canadian) since the start of June and only once was out of the top 20.

Among the longshots, consider Andrew Putnam, who has a top-10 (Scottish Open), a top-20, and two top-40s in his last four outings; Adam Schenk, a top-10 (Deere) and three made cuts in his last four; Corey Conners, three straight finishes in the 20s; and Wyndham Clark, one top-10 (3M) and six straight made cuts since mid-June.

The Medinah No. 3 course presented a balanced challenge to the players in the two PGA Championships that were won by Woods. The statistics most strongly correlated with success were greens in regulation, driving distance, and scrambling, with sand saves also significant. From a panel discussion, golfdigest.com reports this comment re Medinah: “This is one big, bold, and very demanding golf course. Insanely hard from the tips. The par-threes (three of the four) are good but repetitive in their look and shot demands. Testing par-fours, and interesting par-fives. Just one of those great tests of golf, albeit not necessarily inspiring.”

Brooks Koepka (in the top 10 percent of all PGA/ Euro pros in all four of those stats) is the player whose statistical profile is the best match for the course, per the Hawley course fit statistics. Patrick Cantlay, Dustin Johnson, and McIlroy all are within a quarter-stroke of Koepka, and almost half the field (29 more players) is within a half-stroke. In terms of longshots who might find the course to their liking, Clark, Harold Varner, Scott Piercy, Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im, Kevin Tway, Dylan Frittelli, Schenk, and Sung Kang all fall outside the top 50 in the Hawley Ratings but inside the half-stroke of course fit noted above.