If there’s anyone out there who is saying he or she has a good idea about what’s going to happen in the Charles Schwab Challenge this week, well, hmm, let’s just say that there is more doubt about what’s going to happen than usual.

It’s hard to imagine that there could be a less obvious road to forecasting an event than there is for this one. It will have been 94 days without action on the PGA Tour when they tee off at the Colonial Country Club Thursday. Certainly there is no way to tell who’s hot. Some guys got healthy, some guys got rusty, some had personal problems to address. And it should be highly competitive. Half of the top 10, 14 of the top 20, and fully 40 of the top 50 players in the current Hawley Ratings submitted entries to the event. Last year, for instance, there were three of the top 10 and only 21 of the top 50. It looks like a lot of guys are interested in getting their seasons re-started as quickly as possible.

Probably the most logical angle is to start with the best players. In order, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, and Dustin Johnson are here representing the world top 10. McIlroy and Rahm were the two hottest players in the world when things shut down back on Mar. 8. McIlroy also plans to play the next two events — the RBC Heritage, ending June 21, and the Travelers Championship, ending June 28. “I just want to get back out and play,” McIlroy told pgatour.com. “So right now, I’m planning to play the first three events and then see where we go from there.”

“You have to be ready to go,” McIlroy said. “You know, stay sharp. Stay ready. It’s pedal to the metal to the end of the year to try to get as much golf in as possible. I personally am looking forward to that. I miss the competition. I miss the buzz of getting into contention and playing in those last few groups on a Sunday and really feeling that. I also miss the locker room. I miss being around people. I miss the banter that goes on in the locker rooms and the camaraderie that people don’t see.”

Another angle in trying to figure out who can win is how the player’s strengths match up with any bias inherent in the course. Shots gained in approach and shots gained putting are the two stats most closely associated with success at Colonial over the past several years. Simpson and McIlroy are the top two players in the field in terms of how their games match up to the course using those stats. Tony Finau, Thomas, Patrick Reed, Branden Grace, Rahm, and defending champion Kevin Na are next. Grace and Tom Hoge would count as longshots who might be ready to take advantage of the track.

The last five champions of the event are in the field. That’s Na, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Jordan Spieth, and Chris Kirk. Spieth is a native Texan who has an outstanding record of one win, two seconds, a third, another top 10, another top 20, and a top 40 in seven lifetime appearances in the event. Charley Hoffman and Ryan Palmer are two other native Texans who have shown repeated success here in Ft. Worth.

And then there is the dartboard method of picking a winner. Somewhat along that line, Joel Dahmen, Bryson DeChambeau, and Max Homa are young players who were steadily improving their play when the Tour shut down in March. Any of them could be worth backing.

Welcome back to professional golf and good luck with your picks.