What to make of Rory McIlroy? Still no. 1 in the Hawley Ratings and no. 2 in the Official World Golf Ratings, he looks the same and still hits the ball hard (top five in Tour stats for driving distance and shots gained off the tee), but the results haven’t been there since he returned from the Tour’s three-month spring break. He finished in the top five in all four 2020 appearances thru the Palmer. Since returning in June he has an 11th place finish in the Travelers and three other appearances where he wasn’t close to the top 20.

Shane Ryan at golfdigest.com says McIlroy’s approach game has been the Achilles heel. (Read the analysis at https://www.golfdigest.com/story/rory-mcilroy-struggles-pga-tour-restart-why-broken-down-approach-shots.) That’s as good an explanation as any. We’re still thinking he pulls it together at some point, maybe this week in the World Golf Championships-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. He has only played TPC Southwind twice in the last eight years; he made the top 10 both times (third last year and seventh in 2012). He is well above average as a fit for the course, and his long-term record of strong finishes is compelling.

Not convinced? Next on the list are Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay, top-10 players who have been about where they were before the break, or a maybe little better. In five appearance since June, Thomas lost in that playoff at the Workday and had top-10s at the Heritage and Schwab, with one missed cut. Cantlay hasn’t missed a cut since the spring of 2019 and has a top-10 in the Workday and an 11th in the Travelers.

In terms of upward trend, no one can beat Daniel Berger and Tyrrell Hatton. Berger missed the cut at the Memorial but before that he won the break-ending Schwab and was third a week later at the Heritage. Hatton, the 28-year-old Englishman in his fourth year on the Tour, has been in the top five in both of his appearances (Rocket, Heritage) since June. Hatton is playing at a career-best level.

TPC Southwind is located about a half-hour southeast of downtown Memphis on former farmland. A few mementos of the farm have been retained and there is plenty of water. According to the Hawley course fit statistics, driving distance and shots gained around the green are the stats most closely correlated with success in this event over recent years, and driving accuracy, scrambling, and shots gained in approach also correlate well. Hatton and Berger are two of the top three players in the field in the extent to which their games are a match for those statistics. Add Brandt Snedeker for the third. Jon Rahm is the only other top-10-rated player within a half-stroke of Hatton. Other familiar names of players who should enjoy the course are Webb Simpson, Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama.

Longer shots with a chance may include Abraham Ancer and Kevin Na, with their games on the upswing and appearing to be good fits for the course; and Brendon Todd, a good fit for the course.

Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, and Brooks Koepka – all of whom have performed well here but in a manner to disappoint some fans in the last two months – also are in the field. Mickelson had five straight top-10s here from 2014 through 2018. Johnson won here in 2012 and 2018. Koepka is the defending champion and has three top-10s overall in the last five iterations of the WGC FedEx.

The second tournament this week is the Barracuda Championship, the Tour’s annual Stableford scoring event. The top pick is Brendan Steele, who comes in having made the last three cuts including 13th at the Memorial and sixth at the Travelers. He is as close as it comes to a regular in this event, having played it six of the last eight years (skipping 2017 and 2018) with four top-10s in that span. Ryan Armour also comes in showing some recent success, top-10s in both the Travelers and Rocket, although he has missed the cut at every other appearance (nine of them) in 2020. Ryan Moore is the top-rated player per the Hawley Ratings, 57th.

The Barracuda has shifted about 15 miles west of Reno NV, its former site, to the Tahoe Mt. Club in mountainous Truckee CA.