Aug
A Look at the PGA Championship
For the purposes of analyzing the year’s first major, this week’s PGA Championship, let’s forget about everything that happened before June, forget about the Hawley Ratings and the Official World Golf Ratings, and just look at what’s happened since pro golf resumed in the U.S. in June and in Europe in July. Here is your new world top 10:
Daniel Berger Bryson DeChambeau Justin Thomas Tyrrell Hatton Abraham Ancer Xander Schauffele Webb Simpson Matthew Fitzpatrick Patrick Cantlay Viktor Hovland
Tommy Fleetwood ? 77th.Hideki Matsuyama ? 23rd.Rory McIlroy ? 30th.Jon Rahm ? 31st.Adam Scott ? DNP.Tiger Woods ? One missed cut.
The ratings are based on performance in the nine U.S. events and four Euro events starting with the June 14 Schwab. You can mostly forget about the Euro events – the total purses of those four tournaments is less than the purse of any U.S. event other than the Barracuda.
Berger missed the cut at the Memorial but has been in the top three in all three of his other appearances – including a runner-up finish last week at the WGC-FedEx and the win in the break-ending Schwab.
The bulked-up DeChambeau, who would not look out of place in a heavyweight boxing ring, came charging out in June with three straight top-10s and the win in the Rocket.
Thomas has played every week but one, topping it with the gutty win last week in Memphis. He has three other top-10s, including a not-so-gutty runner-up finish to
Note in passing that the entry list for this event is, as always, very strong. It includes everyone on the Hawley Ratings top 50 except no. 36 Francesco Molinari. Going down the list a bit, it appears that some veteran players may have recognized the three-month break as a time to get the engine tuned-up again, maybe before it’s too late. Those from outside the Hawley Ratings top 40 who have been solid include
Younger players from outside the top 40 who have been solid include 26-year-old South African
For only the fourth time, the PGA Championship is being played at a public course. TPC Harding Park in San Francisco is site of the event. The course was a Tour stop in the 1960s, then lack of maintenance took a toll over a long period of years. The bottom came in 1998 when Harding Park was used as a parking lot for the U.S. Open at Olympic Club. After a renovation in the early 2000s, the course returned to prominence and has hosted events such as the 2005 WGC-American Express, the 2009 Presidents Cup (where Woods was 5-0), and the 2015 WGC-Cadillac Match Play (won by McIlroy).
The course is noted for curving fairways that require risk/ reward choices regarding line of flight. It can play long in the thick San Francisco air, especially when foggy. The expectation is that the narrowed fairways will be lined with very heavy rough. If you consider how PGA Championship courses have been set up in recent years, a player can expect to be tested across all the skill areas – for instance, driving distance and putting have been the statistics most closely correlated with success on PGA Championship courses, per the Hawley course fit statistics. Also driving accuracy, shots gained in approach, and greens in regulation to a slightly lesser extent. So, repeating, pretty much all the skill areas.
Among those from the first list of 10 names above, Schauffele, Thomas, and Cantlay are among the 20 players whose statistical profiles are the best fit for the stats above.
Among the longer shots who ought to fit Harding Park are
Among the top 50, players who have shown little since June include
Among touring pros who are entered and ranked in the world top 100, there are two – no. 6 Adam Scott and no. 64