Thinking about looking down that list of entries and picking out the guy who has had a dominant year and is positioned to add a career-defining Masters victory to his resume this week?

It’s a trick question. The key part is the words “dominant season”, and the answer to the question is that the guy doesn’t exist. If you look at the top eight players in the world as defined in the Hawley Ratings, only one (Bryson DeChambeau) has raised his rating this year. If you prefer the Official World Golf Ratings, only two (Collin Morikawa and Patrick Reed) have done so in 2021. In none of those cases has the player been close to what would have been considered dominant in another year.

Bottom line, one of those top players may win it, but certainly it’s wide open to someone from well down the list to take the green jacket.

Let’s start with a run-down of the three names mentioned above:

• Bryson DeChambeau – Seven appearances in 2021, one win (Palmer), two other top-10s (TPC, Champions), one other top-20, one missed cut. Last time out – 42nd in the Match Play. Assessment: A threat.
• Collin Morikawa – Seven appearances, one win (WGC Mexico), two other top-10s (Sony, Champions), no other top-20s, one MC. Last time out – 56th in the Match Play. Assessment: Better at the start of the year.
• Patrick Reed – Eight appearances, one win (Farmers), one other top-10 (Mexico), no other top-20s, three MCs. Last time out – 28th in the Match Play. Assessment: 2018 Masters champion has been better in the bigger events.

Again, those are the guys whose ratings went up. Here are the rest of the world top eight (Hawley list), in order from closest to 2020 form to worst in relation to 2020 form:

• Jon Rahm (no. 1, rating down 107 points) – Seven appearances, no wins, five top-10s (Match Play, Phoenix, Genesis, Farmers, Champions), one other top-20, no MCs. Last time out – fifth In Match Play. Assessment: Solid season other than lack of a win.
• Xander Schauffele (no. 4, rating down 107 points) – Seven appearances, no wins, three top-10s (Phoenix, Farmers, Champions), two other top-20s, one MC. Assessment: Had back-to-back ties for second, playing fine.
• Justin Thomas (no. 2, rating down 137 points) – Seven appearances, one win (TPC), one other top-10 (Champions), two top-20s, two MCs. Last time out – 42nd in Match Play. Assessment: Great TPC win and only a little otherwise.
• Patrick Cantlay (no. 8, rating down 167 points) – Six appearances, no wins, two top-10s (Pebble, AmEx), two other top-20s, one MC. Last time out – 18th in Match Play. Assessment: Was best in January and February.
• Webb Simpson (no. 6, rating down 203 points) – Six appearances, no wins, two top-10s (Mexico, Sony), no other top-20s, one MC. Last time out – 28th in Match Play. Assessment: Underachiever in 2021.
• Dustin Johnson (no. 7, rating down 284 points) – Six appearances, one win (Saudi [Euro event]), one other top-10 (Genesis), one other top-20, no MCs. Last time out – 28th In Match Play. Assessment: Won 2020 Masters only four and a half months ago, and wonder if he’ll think another February visit to Saudi Arabia is worth it next year.
• Rory McIlroy (no. 3, rating down 292 points) – Eight appearances, no wins, three top-10s (Palmer, Mexico, Abu Dhabi [Euro]), two top-20s, two MCs. Last time out – 28th in Match Play. Assessment: Flashed in spots, maintained class while rating sank.

Let’s look for another way to assess this.

It’s pretty much a given that there is no course in the world more admired for its beauty than Augusta National. And not only is it a beautiful sight, but it is also a balanced course that requires excellence in all phases of the game from the successful player. This is supported statistically by a profile that shows a high mathematical correlation between event success and player strengths basically across all the basic skills. Over the last eight Masters, the top statistic in correlation with success is greens in regulation. Scrambling is next, then putting, then driving distance.

In terms of how the players are performing this season, Cantlay has the statistical profile that is the no. 1 fit for Augusta National. He’s in the top quarter of all U.S. and Euro pros in GIR, in the top 2 percent in scrambling, and top quarter in putting. Next is Simpson (top 10 percent in GIR, top 1 percent in scrambling, top half in putting). Then you have Thomas (top quarter in GIR), Tony Finau (top quarter in GIR, top 10 percent in putting), and DeChambeau (top 10 percent in driving distance). Others showing a well-balanced game, in order, are Scottie Scheffler, Rahm, Paul Casey, and Schauffele.

In terms of players who have been getting it done recently, and in addition to the previously mentioned Rahm and DeChambeau, the following have the best recent showings. In rating order:

• Matthew Fitzpatrick (no. 11) – Has a current streak of six straight events in the top 20, including three in the top 10, and with a best of fifth in the Genesis.
• Paul Casey (no. 14) – Very good fit for the course, also has six straight in the top 20 of stroke-play events (although 40th in the Match Play). Won the Euro Tour Omega Dubai event in January.
• Corey Conners (no. 29) – Has two top-10s (TPC and Palmer), a top-20, and an 0-3 record in the Match Play.
• Jason Kokrak (no. 30) – Had three straight top-10s in the Mexico, Palmer, and TPC.
• Jordan Spieth (no. 31) – Onetime boy wonder and 2015 Masters champion is making fans smile again. Won last week at Texas, and had two top-10s (Palmer, Pebble), two top-20s, and a finish just above the cut line in TPC in five events leading into the win.
• Cameron Smith (no. 32) – Good fit for the course. Last four outings were a fourth at the Genesis, two top-20s, and a mid-pack finish in the Match Play.
• Lee Westwood (no. 40)— 44-year-old has been up and down with a top-20 in the Match Play, MC at the Honda, and a runner-up finish at the Palmer in his last three starts.

Roll the dice or throw a dart. From this corner, it seems like Rahm, DeChambeau, and Casey are the top three.