This week we’re going with defending champion Webb Simpson in the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head SC. In addition to winning here in the second event after the Tour resumed last June, Simpson is coming off a good finish in the Masters and he’s a good fit for the course.

Simpson made a nice weekend climb up the leaderboard in the Masters last weekend, going from 40th on Friday night to finish in 12th place. He told jacksonville.com that his caddie, Paul Tesori, helped him straighten things out after shooting a 76 in the second round. “He noticed something in my golf swing, and we worked on it,” he said. “All of a sudden, no left balls, and I started hitting it solid again.” The Masters result came after what has been kind of an up-and-down year for Simpson. He’s had two top-10s in 2021 (Mexico, Sony), two finishes worse than 40th, and a missed cut (TPC).

Per the Hawley course fit statistics, the correlation between a strong number in the strokes gained off the tee statistic and success at Harbour Town is one of the strongest among all statistics on all Tour courses. Also there is a strong correlation between the player’s sand saves ranking and success here, and with shots gained around the green to a lesser extent. Simpson is in the top half of all PGA and Euro players in shots gained off the tee and in the top 10 percent in sand saves and shots gained around the green. He has his roots one state up the Atlantic coast, with a hometown of Raleigh and a collegiate history at Wake Forest.

As typical, the Heritage has drawn a fairly strong field. In addition to Simpson, fifth in the Hawley Ratings, the sixth through ninth-rated players are on hand, and six more of those between 11th and 20th. Bryson DeChambeau, second pick behind Simpson and one slot behind him in the ratings, is the player whose statistics profile leads the field for this course. He is in the top 1 percent in shots gained off the tee and in the top quarter in the other two stats noted above, DeChambeau comes in off two straight finishes outside the top 40 (Masters, Match Play). Of course, he is the defending U.S. Open champion and winner of the Palmer in March.

Also from the top 10, in order, are Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, and Daniel Berger.

After DeChambeau and Simpson, the next-best fits for the course are Cantlay, Paul Casey, John Huh, Sungjae Im, and Sergio Garcia. Garcia may deserve some consideration. He’s in the top 2 percent in shots gained off the tee, top quarter in shots gained around the green, and playing well. He has top-10 finishes in the Match Play and TPC as the middle part of a sandwich of two missed cuts (Masters, Genesis). A guy you might not think of, Chris Kirk, is in the top half of all three of those statistics and having a very nice year with three top-10s (Texas, Palmer, Sony) and in the top 25 in his other three 2021 appearances.

Veterans Brian Harman and Charley Hoffman have been having a good time of it recently. Harman was part of a tie with Simpson in the Masters and already has three top-10s (Match Play, TPC, AmEx) in 2021. His record includes two top-10s in this event. Hoffman’s runner-up finish at Texas two weeks ago (he did not qualify for the Masters) was his third top-10 of the year (Palmer, Pebble).

Johnson, a South Carolina native and long-time resident of the world top 10 lists, normally would be among the favorites here. Unfortunately he is in what needs to be considered a slump. He missed the cut at the Masters, finished outside the top 20 in the Match Play, and was outside the top 40 in TPC and at Mexico.

You might feel that Steve Stricker, at age 54, ought to be playing some other tour. However note that he is a good fit for the course (top quarter in sand saves, top 10 percent in shots gained around the green) and playing good golf (missed cut in TPC but top 20 in the Honda and fourth at Phoenix).