We’re back at the Colonial Country Club in Ft. Worth, where the PGA Tour resumed last spring after a 13-week pause during the start of the pandemic. After a little boost in quality of the field last year, presumably due to the timing, it’s back to a more normal, mid-range field this year. The favorite is Jordan Spieth, a native and resident of nearby Dallas, who is back in the conversation after three years of play far below the standard he established in his early 20s.

The field includes eight of the top 20 in the Hawley Ratings, the same count as in 2019 and a drop of three from last year. From the top 10, three are in attendance – Justin Thomas, third; Daniel Berger, seventh; and Patrick Reed, eighth.

Spieth is down at 28th in the ratings, but that’s halfway to the top from the 56th spot he held back at the start of February. “I’m rejuvenated. This is a big positive,” Spieth told si.com after his most recent top-10 finish, in the Nelson two weeks ago. He was a little off the leaderboard, in 30th, in the PGA last week. Overall since February he has played eight times with one win (the Valero Texas, Apr. 4), five top-10s, and a worst finish of 48th at TPC. He has a great record at Colonial in the eight times he’s played the event – six finishes in the top 10, including the 2016 win and runner-up finishes the year before and after.

Also note that Spieth is playing great anywhere in Texas. Besides winning in San Antonio, he was in the top 10 in Austin (Match Play) and Dallas (Nelson) this year.

Patrick Reed, also with results on the upswing, is the second choice. He was 17th in the PGA, coming off back-to-back top-10s in his prior two appearances. He visits Colonial only occasionally but has been in the top 10 twice.

The only course that has been part of the PGA Tour longer than Colonial is Augusta National. Colonial is not especially long at 7010 yards (par 70), but it does have one of those tough three-hole stretches that distinguish a few courses on Tour. Here it’s known as the “horrible horseshoe”, the third through fifth holes. Per golflink.com, the third is a 465-yard, par four with a sharp dogleg left. Next is the 247-yard, par three fourth hole, featuring an elevated green, meaning there is no rolling the tee shot up. The hole has never yielded an ace in 76 years of this event. The fifth is another long par four with a slight dogleg right. The Trinity River runs alongside the entire length of the hole on the right so any errant shot there is gone.

Course analysis by alookatgolf.com indicates a balanced course in terms of what is demanded of the player. The top three stats in terms of their correlation with success in the last eight editions of the event cover the course from tee to green — shots gained putting, shots gained off the tee, and shots gained in approach, in that order. Reed (top 1 percent of U.S./ Euro pros in shots gained putting) and Justin Thomas (top 2 percent in shots gained in approach) are the co-no. 1 players in the field in terms of how their statistical profiles fit with those stats.

Among other logical contenders in the field are these:

• Tony Finau has three missed cuts in his last six appearances, but the others have been pretty good, including top-10s in both of the majors. He’s an excellent fit for the course, and in the top 10 percent in shots gained in approach.
• Abraham Ancer hasn’t missed a cut or finished worse than 26th in his last seven times out. He was runner-up in the Wells Fargo.
• Louis Oosthuizen was prominently featured in the PGA broadcasts and hung on for second. He also was in the top 10 in both events before that, including second in the Valspar. Just behind Reed and Thomas as a fit for the course.
• Justin Rose has been up and down. He has missed two cuts in the last five appearances but also has two top-10s in the majors over the same span of time.
• Berger is another who should enjoy the course; in the top quarter of players in all the three key stats. Was third at the Nelson and has five top-10 finishes this year.
• Corey Conners is in the top 10 percent in shots gained off the tee and shots gained in approach. Had a string of four top-10s in five appearances in March and April.

Phil Mickelson, stunning winner of last week’s PGA Championship at age 50, is certain to be a focus of fans and media. Phil has missed five cuts in 2021 but clearly he remains capable of handling the bright lights.

Others with something to recommend them, in ratings order, include Jason Kokrak, Brandt Snedeker, Keith Mitchell, Camilo Villegas, and Scott Stallings.

Kokrak is in the top 10 percent in shots gained putting and had a string of three straight top-10s in February and March. Snedeker has two top-10s and two top-20s since missing the cut at TPC; he’s not an especially good fit for the course. Mitchell had a little streak of a top-20 followed by top-10s in the Zurich and Wells Fargo. Villegas started the year slowly but has a top-10 and two top-20s in four appearances going back to March. Stallings was third in the Nelson his last time out.