In case you’re wondering who really wants to be just a few miles south of Hartford CT this weekend for the Travelers Championship, you have to include those guys who made the 2,400-mile trip from South Carolina to southern California last week followed by the 2,900-mile trip to Harford this week. And there are actually 16 of them in the Travelers field, headed by Dustin Johnson, ranked no. 9 in the world per the Hawley Ratings. From the top 20, there’s Harris English, no. 19. From the top 50 there are Brooks Koepka, no. 22, and Ian Poulter, no. 40.

We’re not going to say that none of those guys can win, but instead let’s start with Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, and the Patricks (Cantlay and Reed).

Casey is playing well, fits the TPC River Highlands course, and has a great record in this event. He’s played here each of the last six years and has four finishes in the top five, including as runner-up in 2018 and 2015, plus two others that were OK. More recently he was seventh in the U.S. Open, fourth in the PGA, and between them squeezed in a top-10 finish in a Euro Tour event. Per tennisworldusa.org, Casey had this to say before the Euro event in Hamburg, Germany: “I’ve noticed an up-tick in my play and a sharpness and a focus, an added layer. It might be some of it is a little bit of pressure, you’re now in people’s gaze. You’re there under scrutiny and something about that has raised my focus.”

DeChambeau blew up like a hot air balloon on the back nine of the U.S. Open last week, but he gets consideration based on prior performance in this event. He has back-to-back-to-back top-10s in the event since 2018 and is a very strong fit for the course.

Cantlay falls in DeChambeau’s shadow as a competitor here — top-20 finishes each of the last three years. He’s been better recently, however, with top-25 finishes in the Open and PGA, sandwiched around the win in the Memorial.

Reed plays here every year and has one top-10 in the last eight tries, a fifth in 2017. He’s been good four of the last five appearances in 2021 — top-20 in the two majors, top-10 in the Memorial and Wells Fargo, and one missed cut.

Among the 10 PGA Tour stats that are tracked within the Hawley course fit assessment, shots gained off the tee shows by far the highest correlation between player performance in the event and player standing in the stat ranking. There are lower levels of correlation between shots gained in approach and shots gained around the green. DeChambeau, widely known as a monster off the tee, is easily the best fit for the course based on those correlations and his 2021 performance. He leads a bunched pack of Keegan Bradley, Cantlay, Koepka, Joaquin Niemann, David Lipsky, and Tony Finau by over a half-stroke, a significant margin.

Johnson, who finally fell out of the no. 1 spot in the Official World Golf Ratings this week, has one top-10 in his last nine appearances (snuck in at 10th at the Palmetto two weeks ago) and one made cut in the three 2021 majors (18th last week in the U.S. Open).

Looking at the field from the perspectives of course fit and recent play, Casey, Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Koepka, and Bradley look like contenders. From a little deeper in the ratings, you might consider Emiliano Grillo, Harold Varner, Aaron Wise, or Matthew NeSmith. Grillo has a recent top-10 in the Schwab. Varner was second in the Heritage back in April. Wise was in the top 10 in the Memorial, his last time out, in the top 20 in the PGA, and in the top 10 in the Wells Fargo.

Others who are playing the 5,300-mile “June swing”, in ratings order, are Kevin Kisner, Erik Van Rooyen, Jhonattan Vegas, Chez Reavie, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Patrick Rodgers, Bo Hoag, Brian Stuard, Robby Shelton, Sam Ryder, Garrick Higgo, and JJ Spaun.

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