With a couple of dozen U.S.-based PGA Tour players probably already on-site at this week’s Euro Tour event in Scotland, one of those rare soft spots on the PGA Tour schedule is found this week at TPC Deere Run in Silvis IL. It’s the John Deere Classic, in its regular week-before-the-British spot on the Tour calendar. The obvious pick on the west side of the Atlantic is Daniel Berger, by far the highest-rated player in the field and one who fits the course and is playing well.

Berger Is at a career-high no. 4 in the Hawley Ratings and ahead of a field that includes only five other players from the top 50: no. 23 Brian Harman, no. 28 Sungjae Im, no. 33 Russell Henley, no. 46 Alex Noren, and no. 47 Kevin Streelman. Meanwhile, the oddly-named abrdn Scottish Open in North Berwick, Scotland has the world top three, half of the top 10, and 15 of the top 50.

Whoever wins the Deere, you can count on a low score being necessary. The average winner in the last eight iterations of the event has been at 263, or 21-under. The Hawley course fit statistics indicate that greens in regulation and putts per GIR are the statistics where player performance correlates most highly with success in the event. Scrambling and driving distance are a bit behind.

Let’s look at the six top-rated players in the John Deere, and then six more who could step up and surprise

• Daniel Berger – Very steady in the run-of-the-mill Tour events, which this surely is. Excluding the majors and WGC events, he is a perfect seven-for-seven in top-20 finishes this year, with five top-10s. He also was seventh in the U.S. Open. And finally Berger is the no. 1 player in the field in terms of how his game matches what works at TPC Deere Run. He’s in the top 10 percent of U.S. and Euro pros in greens in regulation, and in the top quarter in putting.
• Brian Harman – 2014 winner here also is having a very good season. If you excuse a missed cut at the PGA, he’s been in the top 20 in every other appearance (eight of them) going back to last March. His best was a third in TPC. He’s in the top 10 percent in putting.
• Sungjae Im – Trying to solidify his game after a stretch from April to June where he missed the cut in four of five appearances. The last two have been better, eighth last week in the Rocket and in the top 40 at the U.S. Open. He’s heading east next week for final Olympics prep. In top quarter in greens in regulation.
• Russell Henley – Fourth in the field in course fit, mostly based on being in the top quarter in greens in regulation and scrambling. He was the runner-up here in 2019 when the event was last played. Henley had a couple of top-10s early in the spring (Honda and Heritage) and arrives in Iowa with top-20s the last two times out (Travelers and U.S. Open).
• Alex Noren – Just missed that three-man playoff last weekend by one stroke, finishing fourth in the Rocket. Before that, you must go back 10 events to find a top-20.
• Kevin Streelman – Was playing steady golf, with four straight in the top 20, including an eighth in the PGA, until he missed the cut at the Travelers.

Going a bit deeper into the ratings, here are six other players with various plusses to recommend them, listed by Hawley Ratings rank: