This week’s 3M Open, situated in kind of an awkward spot on the calendar (not to mention an awkward spot on the planet Earth) between last weekend’s British Open and next week’s Tokyo Olympics, draws a representative field. It’s similar to the field that played the event in its first two occurrences the last two years. At the top of the list are two top-10 finishers from the Open – Louis Oosthuizen, who led for much of the event before fading slightly to third, and Dustin Johnson, whose eighth-place finish in the Open was only his second top-10 since February.

They will be playing at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine MN. The weather is forecast to be hot, in the low to mid-90s each day. The course is built on naturally rolling terrain, a former sod farm. It’s in the north-central metro area, not quite 20 miles north of Target Field, the Minnesota Twins’ home. In the first two iterations of the event, per the Hawley course fit statistics, the top skill areas have been those used en route to the greens. Shots gained in approach and driving distance have been the two stats most closely correlated with player success. Shots gained around the green and driving accuracy have paid off just slightly less.

Before we return to Oosthuizen and DJ, let’s look for contenders from those who (a) appear in the Hawley Ratings top 100, who (b) are not suffering any jet lag based on a return trip from England, and who (c) have been playing solid golf in recent appearances. There are three who stand out per that description:

• Bubba Watson, ranked no. 32 – Been pretty steady without raising many eyebrows the last four months. His best finish in that span was sixth in the Rocket, his last appearance. Also has five other top-20 finishes and just one missed cut in aa 10-event span. Missed cut here last year.
• Maverick McNealy, no. 61 – Playing his best golf toward the end of an up-and-down season with four straight finishes between 18th and 30th.
• Hank Lebioda, no. 91 – Missed four cuts in a row in early spring, then something turned on and he made four in a row, with two top-20s (Nelson, Valspar). Now he’s got the afterburners going with three straight top-10s (Deere, Rocket, Travelers). Made cut here in both prior events.

Here are probably the top five players in the field, in order of preference:

• Louis Oosthuizen, no 9 in the Hawley Ratings – First appearance in this event comes after he led for much of the British Open and was undone by the loss of four strokes to Collin Morikawa on holes seven thru nine Sunday. He didn’t play really well in his return to Europe at the end of June but nevertheless has five top-10s in his last seven appearances. He’s in the top 10 percent in shots gained around the green and in the top quarter in driving accuracy.
• Dustin Johnson, no. 4 (but oddly no. 1 in the Official World Golf Ratings) – Missed the cut here last year as favorite. Best fit for the course in the field per the Hawley course fit stats: Top 5 percent in driving distance and top quarter in shots gained in approach. Failure to make the top 10 in nine events of a 10-event stretch leading into the British has been well documented.
• Brian Harman, no. 24 – Playing as well or better than he has at any point in a career going back to the mid-00s. Has four top-10s and four other top-20s since February. Top 10 percent in driving accuracy and top quarter in shots gained around the green. Made cut in both prior 3M events, including a top-10 in 2019.
• Patrick Reed, no. 12 – Misses a cut every three or four events, as he did at the British, and hits top-10s with about the same frequency.
• Tony Finau, no. 20 – Bounced back from consecutive missed cuts to finish 15th in England. Last two top-10s were in the PGA and Masters.

Believe it or not, there is a player in the field who played the Open Championship in England last week and is playing the Olympics next week. It’s three continents in three weeks for Emiliano Grillo, who will represent Argentina in Tokyo.

There’s a nice story of one-time teenage phenom Norman Xiong at golfchannel.com. He turned pro in 2018 after an award-winning sophomore season at Oregon, and then the expected quick success did not happen. Xiong, 22, made it into the field via the Monday qualifier.