Let’s be real, real generous here. At most, half the guys in the Olympic men’s golf competition have a chance to win. Realistically, maybe a fourth.

Based on a look at over 170 events on the PGA and Euro tours over the past three seasons, the chance of someone outside the top 150 in the Hawley Ratings winning against a field of this strength is about 1 in 20. From this perspective, the clear favorites are Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa, both southern Californians.

Schauffele, ranked second, hasn’t won this season but he has three seconds (Phoenix, Farmers, CJ) and four other top-10s. Morikawa, ranked fourth, has been more outstanding recently. In the last two months he’s competed six times and the only clunker was a finish just above the cut line after a trip across the Atlantic. He then proceeded to win the British Open. Also, he was runner-up in the Memorial, had top-10s in two majors, and finished in the top 20 in the other appearance.

Among the other five players from the world top 20, Paul Casey comes in with the most sizzle. He last won in January at the Omega Dubai. He has half a dozen top-10s on the PGA Tour this year and his worst finish in the majors was 26th in the Masters.

Three others from a little farther down the rankings who come in with some plusses in recent history are Canadian Mac Hughes, Italian Guido Migliozzi, and Venezuelan Jhonattan Vegas. Hughes, no. 63, went thru a horrible stretch of five events without a made cut, then made the top 20 at the Rocket and U.S. Open and was sixth in the British. Vegas, no. 91, was runner-up in two of his last four PGA appearances (3M and Palmetto) and just missed the top 10 at the Deere. Migliozzi, no. 111, had a nice stretch of back-to-back Euro runners-up (HimmerLand and British Masters), then back-to-back top-20s in the U.S. (Open, Travelers), before fading in his last two Euro appearances.

Among the Asians, Hideki Matsuyama, no. 23, Japan’s top player, draws most of the attention. Unfortunately, he hasn’t done much since winning the Masters, finishing outside the top 20 five times in a row. His last appearance was a missed cut at the Rocket. The next two Asians from the ratings are no. 30 Sungjae Im and no. 64 Si Woo Kim, both Korean. Im has one top-10 (Rocket) and five missed cuts among his last dozen PGA Tour appearances. Also looking at the last 12 appearances, going back a bit more than four months, Kim has two top-10s (Memorial, TPC) and merely three missed cuts.

From the perspective of our well-known PGA and Euro Tour pros, there is no tribal knowledge of the host course, the Kasumigaseki Country Club, and not much from on-line sources, nor even much among Japanese golfers. The tournament venue is in Saitama, about 20 miles north of Tokyo. Unlike the 2016 Rio Olympics course that was constructed for the tournament, the Kasumigaseki CC was built in 1929. Its East Course, where the tournament will be played, shows an on-line scorecard listing par as 71 and at 7466 yards. For a brief period in the late 1940s, its membership consisted of the U.S. military. More commonly it is a private club with no access to the public. The East Course was the venue for the 1957 Canada Cup (precursor to the World Cup of Golf); Sam Snead and Jimmy Demaret represented the U.S. and finished second to the host nation.

The course was redesigned by Tom Fazio in 2016 in preparation for these Games. It is a parkland style layout with water and bunkers coming into play throughout. PGA Tour agronomist Dennis Ingram, who has been on-site since May, said that its trees give it a Monterey Peninsula feel. Ingram described the East Course as a “big, mainly wide open, in your face course of 7,600 yards with big, deep bunkers.” Carefully placed lakes, bunkers, and trees, and the softly rolling fairways provide a classic look. Seasonal plants include dogwood, hydrangea, and horse-chestnut. (Golf-in-japan.com and pgatour.com were sources for some of the Kasumigaseki content in this narrative.)