You’re already familiar with the top players on the PGA Tour as the season heads into its final phase, the FedEx Cup playoffs. So let’s focus on the 10 hottest players in the event. We’ll define the 10 hottest players as seven with the best performance over their last nine events, and three more who have played at the highest level above their current Hawley Rating over the past four appearances. (Players listed in ratings order.)

• Jon Rahm, ranked 1 – Won U.S. Open in June. Good fit for the course; in the top quarter of all PGA/ Euro players in driving distance and putting (i.e. putts per GIR). He’s been idle since the mid-July British Open, keeping intact a streak of three straight top-10s (British, Scottish, and U.S. Open). That streak goes to four of five, skipping over one missed cut, if you include the PGA. Three previous top-10s in four appearances in this event.
• Collin Morikawa, ranked 5 – Won the WGC Workday event in February and British Open in July. His season has been very good, averaging better than one top-10 per month, with a clunker slipped in every three or four events. The last one was not so great (26th at the FedEx) so maybe another bounce-back happens here. Has done next to nothing in two prior appearances in this event (missed cut in 2020, 52nd in 2019).
• Louis Oosthuizen, ranked 9 – Those 2’s (second in the 3M, U.S. Open, PGA, and Zurich, just since May) are pretty good for the bank account but maybe a little tough on the nerves. That doesn’t even include the two other top-10s and two other top-20s in the same time span. Last time out the South African was 17th at the FedEx, extending a streak of made cuts to 14 events, second-best on the Tour.
• Paul Casey, ranked 11 – Won Euro Tour Omega Dubai event in January, and acting like he might be ready to win here too. He’s been in the top 10 five times (FedEx, Olympics, U.S. Open, Porsche European, PGA) in his last seven appearances. Has only one top-10 in his last six times playing this event. The Englishman is in the top quarter in driving distance but bottom half in putting and sand saves.
• Harris English, ranked 12 – Won Champions in January and Travelers in June. Started the season great, faded into the pack a bit in the spring, then picked up the second win and two other top-10s (FedEx, U.S. Open). He’s a top 10 percent scrambler and a pretty good putter. Runner-up here last year but also has a few missed cuts over the years.
• Scottie Scheffler, ranked 13 – Believe it or not, this 25-year-old Texan already has played 57 Tour events, going back to an appearance at the Nelson as a 17-year-old. He’s played great since June (well, except for a 47th-place finish at the Travelers) with three top-10s (British, U.S. Open, Memorial) and nothing worse than 14th in five of his last six appearances. Fourth in this event last year in his first appearance in it. Putting is a strength.
• Jordan Spieth, ranked 16 – Won Texas event in April. He’s had an amazingly steady resurgence, starting the year 52nd (Hawley Ratings) and now up 36 spots. He leads the Tour with 15 straight made cuts. In addition to the win, he’s had two seconds (British, Schwab), two thirds, two fourths, and two other top-10s. Putting has been the backbone of his game.
• Brooks Koepka, ranked 17 – Won at Phoenix in February. Has been up and down a bunch. He was 54th in the FedEx and had three missed cuts in a four-event span from April into June. On the other hand, he also has one finish in each position from first (Phoenix) to sixth since last winter. Good fit for the course with ranks in the top 10 percent in driving distance and sand saves.
• Jhonattan Vegas, ranked 73 – Venezuelan is another guy who’s had a resurgence. Spent a good part of the winter ranked down in the 150s, and even into the 160s, before getting into the top 10 at the Nelson in May. Since then he’s been a runner-up twice (3M, Palmetto) and in the top 20 three other times. Good fit for the course based on top 10 percent ranking in driving distance.
• Hank Lebioda, ranked 95 – Came out of nowhere, only his third year in the rankings and down at no. 190 when the year started. Had a nice streak of three straight top-10s (Deere, Rocket, Travelers) ended when he missed the cut at the Wyndham. First appearance in this event.

There have been two previous FedEx Cup events at Liberty National, the New Jersey course that offers views of the Statue of Liberty across the Hudson River. Those events were in 2019 and 2013, won by Patrick Reed and Adam Scott, respectively. In those two events, driving distance was by far the stat that correlated most closely to success. A bit less strongly correlated were scrambling, putting, and sand saves. In this field, Bryson DeChambeau is easily the player who best fits that stat profile, leading the next-best fit (Rory McIlroy) by over one stroke per round per the Hawley course fit statistics. A lead that large usually is significant. From deep in the pack, Wyndham Clark and Garrick Higgo also have stat profiles that seem to match.

Only the top 70 players will move on to the BMW Championship next week. This is the only FedEx Cup Playoff event with a 36-hole cut.