Perspectives on The Players Championship

07
Mar

Perspectives on The Players Championship

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

NEW This Month

A significant new feature appears at alookatgolf.com this month, providing a set of analytics-based angles that a person might consider in evaluating a PGA Tour event. The data includes the following:
– “I love this place!” Entrants with the best cumulative performance in the event over the past eight years.
– “Certain skills required”. Statistics related to course physical characteristics that have correlated most closely with success on this course.
– “Location, location, location” and “Anyplace but here”. Entrants best-suited and worst-suited for the course based on the statistics from the above set.
– “Top of the heap” and “Sorry, can’t make it”. The top-ranked entrants and highest-ranked players not in the field.
– “Ooh, that’s hot” and “Brr, that’s cold”. The hottest and coldest entrants, based on their prior four appearances in comparison with their current rating.
– “In the neighborhood”. A list of entrants whose residences are closest to the event venue.

An evaluation of the quality of the data appears at the bottom. It shows the extent to which ordering within the lists correlates with finishes.

I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .555 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .290 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Adam Scott	0.559
Sergio Garcia	0.517
Justin Thomas	0.497
Rory McIlroy	0.490
Hideki Matsuyama	0.465
Dustin Johnson	0.436
Jason Day	0.430
Brian Harman	0.398

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this week’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1529.4
Justin Thomas	2	1338.3
Patrick Cantlay	3	1316.8
Xander Schauffele	4	1253.3
Scottie Scheffler	5	1207.1
Rory McIlroy	6	1151.9
Collin Morikawa	7	1135.5
Viktor Hovland	8	1117.2

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this week.

Player	Rank	Rating
Harris English	38	710.3
Taylor Montgomery	70	502.8
Robert MacIntyre	83	435.2
Charles Howell	92	404.8

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Scottie Scheffler	1945.5
Billy Horschel	1613.7
Viktor Hovland	1445.4
Chris Kirk	1292.7
Cameron Young	1143.8
Max Homa	1128.0
Matthew Fitzpatrick	1075.5
Joaquin Niemann	1058.9

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Bryson DeChambeau	-864.7
Patrick Reed	-610.7
Sam Burns	-539.8
Tony Finau	-521.5
Seamus Power	-520.0
Matthew Wolff	-503.6
Charley Hoffman	-481.8
Dustin Johnson	-446.2

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this week’s course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.12	Shots gained putting
0.12	Shots gained in approach
0.08	Greens in regulation
0.05	Shots gained off the tee

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Thomas Pieters	72.71
Jon Rahm	72.82
Viktor Hovland	73.09
Daniel Berger	73.09
Mito Pereira	73.11
Collin Morikawa	73.12
Patrick Cantlay	73.17
Xander Schauffele	73.17

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Brian Gay	74.6
Lucas Herbert	74.5
Jimmy Walker	74.4
Brandon Hagy	74.3
Stephan Jaeger	74.3
Francesco Molinari	74.2
Wyndham Clark	74.2
Tyler McCumber	74.2

In the neighborhood

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Lanto Griffin	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	8
Russell Knox	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	8
Billy Horschel	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	8
Sam Ryder	Atlantic Beach FL	9
Cameron Smith	Jacksonville FL	18
Doc Redman	Jacksonville FL	18
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island GA	75
Zach Johnson	St. Simons Island GA	75
JT Poston	St. Simons Island GA	75
Hudson Swafford	St. Simons Island GA	75
Keith Mitchell	St. Simons Island GA	75
Matt Kuchar	St. Simons Island GA	75

Ending with a little more math

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
I love this place	0.132
Top of the heap	0.204
Ooh, that’s hot	0.148
Location, location, location	0.278