I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Louis Oosthuizen	0.763
Jason Kokrak	0.734
Paul Casey	0.658
Sam Burns	0.621
Russell Knox	0.565
Charl Schwartzel	0.504
Charley Hoffman	0.500
Bubba Watson	0.498

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this week’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Justin Thomas	2	1332.9
Viktor Hovland	5	1222.4
Dustin Johnson	6	1217.3
Xander Schauffele	7	1205.1
Collin Morikawa	11	1097.5
Paul Casey	12	1026.2
Louis Oosthuizen	13	1021.4
Tyrrell Hatton	15	939.6

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this week.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1482.4
Patrick Cantlay	3	1259.2
Cameron Smith	4	1233.8
Scottie Scheffler	8	1179.9

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Viktor Hovland	2140.0
Tyrrell Hatton	1551.6
Keegan Bradley	1214.0
Alex Noren	1190.2
Matthew Fitzpatrick	1082.9
Shane Lowry	984.5
Patton Kizzire	940.4
Adam Hadwin	823.2

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Webb Simpson	-643.4
Charley Hoffman	-532.6
Cameron Tringale	-434.9
Brian Harman	-417.9
Matt Kuchar	-376.8
Michael Thompson	-356.6
Matt Wallace	-347.7
Charl Schwartzel	-342.5

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this week’s course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.16	Driving accuracy
0.14	Shots gained around the green
0.12	Shots gained off the tee
0.12	Shots gained in approach

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Collin Morikawa	71.40
Chez Reavie	71.68
Hayden Buckley	71.69
Keegan Bradley	71.70
Abraham Ancer	71.70
Viktor Hovland	71.70
Bernd Wiesberger	71.71
Matthew Fitzpatrick	71.72

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Seung-yul Noh	73.6
Martin Trainer	73.4
Jonas Blixt	73.2
Jimmy Walker	73.2
David Skinns	73.1
Brian Gay	73.0
Sung Kang	73.0
Ryan Brehm	73.0

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Emiliano Grillo	Bradenton FL	44
Brian Gay	Windermere FL	75
Henrik Stenson	Orlando FL	100
Hank Lebioda	Orlando FL	100
Graeme McDowell	Orlando FL	100
Hayden Buckley	Naples FL	150
Russell Knox	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	150
Tyler Duncan	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	150
Lanto Griffin	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	150

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Ending with a little more math

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
I love this place	0.146
Top of the heap	0.203
Ooh, that’s hot	0.140
Location, location, location	0.178