I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Charley Hoffman	0.625
Matt Kuchar	0.547
Jimmy Walker	0.504
Ryan Palmer	0.452
Chris Kirk	0.440
Jordan Spieth	0.419
Zach Johnson	0.367
Branden Grace	0.364

---

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Rory McIlroy	9	1159.7
Corey Conners	19	926.8
Hideki Matsuyama	24	887.0
Bryson DeChambeau	25	876.2
Abraham Ancer	28	848.1
Jordan Spieth	34	818.0
Tony Finau	38	739.3
Maverick McNealy	45	688.7

---

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1516.7
Justin Thomas	2	1349.3
Dustin Johnson	3	1251.0
Scottie Scheffler	4	1247.1

---

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Chris Kirk	1307.6
Gary Woodland	1175.3
Corey Conners	1172.5
Adam Hadwin	1166.6
Kevin Streelman	1101.7
Rory McIlroy	868.4
CT Pan	562.7
Beau Hossler	551.7

---

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Bryson DeChambeau	-860.4
Keegan Bradley	-780.0
Ryan Palmer	-586.4
Charley Hoffman	-515.1
Taylor Moore	-452.7
Jordan Spieth	-429.8
Tony Finau	-419.6
Luke List	-404.6

---

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.17	Shots gained in approach
0.12	Shots gained off the tee
0.10	Shots gained putting
0.03	Shots gained around the green

---

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Bryson DeChambeau	72.30
Min Woo Lee	72.54
Rory McIlroy	72.57
Corey Conners	72.59
Mito Pereira	72.70
Jhonattan Vegas	72.80
Keegan Bradley	72.80
Abraham Ancer	72.82

---

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Seung-yul Noh	74.1
Martin Trainer	74.1
Jonas Blixt	74.0
David Skinns	73.9
Guido Migliozzi	73.9
Stephan Jaeger	73.9
Justin Lower	73.9
Kevin Chappell	73.8

---

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Abraham Ancer	San Antonio TX	19
Jimmy Walker	Boerne TX	21
Andrew Landry	Austin TX	50
Dylan Frittelli	Austin TX	50
Bronson Burgoon	The Woodlands TX	175
Paul Barjon	Fort Worth TX	175
Brian Stuard	Fort Worth TX	175
Roger Sloan	Houston TX	175
Jhonattan Vegas	Houston TX	175

---

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.190
Ooh, that’s hot	0.158
Location, location, location	0.141
I love this place	0.102