I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .605 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .295 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Louis Oosthuizen	0.877
Xander Schauffele	0.833
Brooks Koepka	0.748
Dustin Johnson	0.710
Patrick Reed	0.701
Hideki Matsuyama	0.681
Jon Rahm	0.610
Rory McIlroy	0.605

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1557.4
Justin Thomas	2	1503.2
Patrick Cantlay	3	1448.5
Rory McIlroy	4	1429.5
Xander Schauffele	5	1372.9
Scottie Scheffler	6	1365.4
Cameron Smith	7	1348.8
Will Zalatoris	8	1253.7

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Paul Casey	18	1057.2
Chris Kirk	42	795.9
Keith Mitchell	44	787.1
Brendan Steele	47	754.9

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Davis Riley	1814.6
Max Homa	1774.6
Cameron Young	1678.9
Mito Pereira	1660.4
Patrick Cantlay	1624.7
Xander Schauffele	1495.2
Rory McIlroy	1213.4
Matthew Fitzpatrick	1166.3

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Dustin Johnson	-925.4
Collin Morikawa	-895.2
Keegan Bradley	-810.8
Bryson DeChambeau	-713.2
Kevin Kisner	-651.5
Viktor Hovland	-645.0
Russell Henley	-602.6
Adam Scott	-600.4

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events in U.S. Opens within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.31	Shots gained putting
0.13	Shots gained off the tee
0.11	Greens in regulation
0.11	Shots gained around the green

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Shaun Norris	70.84
Billy Horschel	71.40
Thomas Pieters	71.64
Jon Rahm	71.72
Rory McIlroy	71.72
Tyrrell Hatton	71.74
Cameron Smith	71.74
Scottie Scheffler	71.74

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Sean Crocker	74.8
Guido Migliozzi	74.4
Joseph Bramlett	74.4
Danny Lee	74.3
Branden Grace	74.3
Brian Stuard	74.3
Erik van Rooyen	74.2
Chase Seiffert	74.2

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Brookline MA, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Keegan Bradley	Woodstock VT	125
Marc Leishman	Virginia Beach VA	450
Corey Conners	Listowel ON	500
Jason Kokrak	Cleveland Oh	550
Grayson Murray	Raleigh NC	600
Bo Hoag	Columbus Oh	650
Harold Varner	Charlotte NC	725
Mac Hughes	Charlotte NC	725
Webb Simpson	Charlotte NC	725

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.324
I love this place	0.171
Ooh, that’s hot	0.155
Location, location, location	0.028