I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the John Deere Classic event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Ryan Moore	0.658
Scott Brown	0.638
Zach Johnson	0.638
Lucas Glover	0.627
Vaughn Taylor	0.592
Charles Howell	0.545
Adam Schenk	0.537
Patrick Rodgers	0.481

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Daniel Berger	14	1117.7
Davis Riley	35	860.3
Webb Simpson	41	831.4
Adam Hadwin	45	787.8
Sahith Theegala	61	657.3
Denny McCarthy	63	639.6
Maverick McNealy	64	622.4
Kevin Streelman	68	572.3

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1608.4
Rory McIlroy	2	1532.9
Patrick Cantlay	3	1531.4
Xander Schauffele	4	1498.9

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Denny McCarthy	1491.5
Sahith Theegala	1145.6
Nick Hardy	1093.4
John Huh	1001.1
Scott Stallings	957.4
Chez Reavie	914.0
Davis Riley	841.5
James Hahn	802.2

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Maverick McNealy	-527.6
Lanto Griffin	-453.1
Patton Kizzire	-441.4
Charley Hoffman	-346.8
Cameron Champ	-345.5
JJ Spaun	-345.4
Taylor Moore	-345.0
Jason Day	-318.4

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC Deere Run course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.16	Greens in regulation
0.12	Shots gained off the tee
0.10	Shots gained around the green
0.06	Putts per GIR

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Charles Howell	68.23
Taylor Pendrith	68.48
Adam Hadwin	68.61
Davis Riley	68.64
Tyler Duncan	68.66
Ryan Armour	68.68
Maverick McNealy	68.71
Joseph Bramlett	68.74

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Joshua Creel	70.3
Chesson Hadley	70.2
Wesley Bryan	70.1
Brian Gay	70.1
Richy Werenski	69.9
Austin Cook	69.9
Kelly Kraft	69.8
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	69.7

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Silvis IL, the event venue.

Note, Zach Johnson’s listed residence is St. Simons Island GA.

Player	Residence	Distance
Nick Hardy	Northbrook IL	200
Ryan Brehm	Mount Pleasant MI	275
Brice Garnett	Gallatin Missouri	375
Scott Gutschewski	Elkhorn NE	375
Adam Schenk	Vincennes IN	425
Robert Streb	Shawnee KS	450
Jason Day	Columbus Oh	500
Bo Hoag	Columbus Oh	500

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.332
I love this place	0.178
Ooh, that’s hot	0.151
Location, location, location	0.003