I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the Tour Championship. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Justin Thomas	0.906
Xander Schauffele	0.858
Jon Rahm	0.813
Rory McIlroy	0.797
Hideki Matsuyama	0.766
Tony Finau	0.734
Patrick Cantlay	0.527
Sungjae Im	0.496

---

Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	1	1810.4
Jon Rahm	2	1697.2
Xander Schauffele	3	1652.0
Rory McIlroy	4	1647.1
Cameron Smith	5	1596.6
Scottie Scheffler	6	1494.7
Will Zalatoris	7	1416.7
Matthew Fitzpatrick	8	1415.2

---

Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Dustin Johnson	12	1231.4
Joohyung Kim	13	1225.5
Shane Lowry	18	1159.4
Daniel Berger	23	1119.6

---

Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Tony Finau	1789.1
Sungjae Im	1697.4
Scott Stallings	1432.3
Brian Harman	1339.4
Patrick Cantlay	1313.3
Cameron Smith	1295.7
Xander Schauffele	1282.1
Joaquin Niemann	1258.0

---

Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Justin Thomas	-836.1
Hideki Matsuyama	-812.1
Collin Morikawa	-463.2
Scottie Scheffler	-297.5
Tom Hoge	-190.6
Max Homa	-182.3
Billy Horschel	-22.9
Sam Burns	-13.2

---

Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the East Lake Golf Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.30	Driving accuracy
0.28	Shots gained off the tee
0.15	Sand saves
0.14	Shots gained around the green

---

Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Matthew Fitzpatrick	67.00
Sungjae Im	67.23
Billy Horschel	67.83
Xander Schauffele	67.88
Brian Harman	67.93
Rory McIlroy	67.93
Corey Conners	68.10
Cameron Young	68.21

---

Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Sahith Theegala	69.9
Viktor Hovland	69.9
Adam Scott	69.9
Sepp Straka	69.8
Scott Stallings	69.7
Cameron Smith	69.7
Sam Burns	69.5
Tom Hoge	69.2

---

Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2022 and Atlanta, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Sepp Straka	Athens GA	50
Scott Stallings	Knoxville Ten	150
JT Poston	St. Simons Island GA	250
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island GA	250
Cameron Smith	Jacksonville FL	275
Billy Horschel	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	300
Cameron Young	Jupiter FL	525
Aaron Wise	Jupiter FL	525
Justin Thomas	Jupiter FL	525

---

Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.348
I love this place	0.159
Ooh, that’s hot	0.139
Location, location, location	0.010