I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Justin Thomas	0.797
Jon Rahm	0.609
Xander Schauffele	0.583
Hideki Matsuyama	0.505
Patrick Cantlay	0.466
Billy Horschel	0.436
Jordan Spieth	0.433
Collin Morikawa	0.374

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	1	1925.7
Jon Rahm	3	1678.3
Xander Schauffele	4	1633.0
Scottie Scheffler	5	1544.2
Will Zalatoris	8	1413.2
Justin Thomas	9	1381.0
Tom Kim	10	1258.4
Matthew Fitzpatrick	11	1249.6

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Rory McIlroy	2	1769.0
Dustin Johnson	6	1518.9
Cameron Smith	7	1489.9
Taylor Montgomery	14	1192.4

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Seamus Power	953.5
Brian Harman	856.9
Mac Hughes	675.2
Patrick Cantlay	498.1
Aaron Wise	372.5
Will Zalatoris	354.3
Sahith Theegala	298.5
JJ Spaun	297.9

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Adam Scott	-733.7
Corey Conners	-660.9
Jordan Spieth	-568.1
Sepp Straka	-519.9
Hideki Matsuyama	-498.1
Cameron Young	-460.9
Scott Stallings	-451.0
Matthew Fitzpatrick	-445.3

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.35	Shots gained in approach
0.28	Putts per GIR
0.26	Driving distance
0.20	Greens in regulation

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scottie Scheffler	70.39
Tom Kim	70.42
Will Zalatoris	70.47
Xander Schauffele	70.85
Justin Thomas	70.87
Tony Finau	71.03
Jon Rahm	71.06
Patrick Cantlay	71.08

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Ryan Brehm	74.2
Chez Reavie	73.3
Sepp Straka	72.8
Chad Ramey	72.8
Mac Hughes	72.8
JT Poston	72.6
Brian Harman	72.5
Matthew Fitzpatrick	72.5

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.357
I love this place	0.168
Ooh, that’s hot	0.151
Location, location, location	0.027