I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Webb Simpson	0.661
Russell Knox	0.533
Brian Harman	0.506
Ryan Palmer	0.481
Stewart Cink	0.457
Matt Kuchar	0.453
Hideki Matsuyama	0.445
Russell Henley	0.431

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Tom Kim	10	1288.6
Sungjae Im	12	1250.3
Taylor Montgomery	14	1201.4
Jordan Spieth	20	1154.2
Brian Harman	25	1101.1
Adam Scott	29	1016.3
Corey Conners	32	971.8
Keegan Bradley	33	958.1

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	1	1895.6
Rory McIlroy	2	1786.4
Jon Rahm	3	1716.0
Xander Schauffele	4	1564.9

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
David Lingmerth	1151.8
Alex Smalley	1050.9
Patrick Rodgers	998.5
JJ Spaun	865.9
Will Gordon	672.8
Brian Harman	663.3
Hayden Buckley	498.9
KH Lee	476.3

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Keegan Bradley	-912.6
Billy Horschel	-770.2
Corey Conners	-738.3
Adam Scott	-730.4
Chris Kirk	-596.6
Webb Simpson	-547.1
Sungjae Im	-486.4
Kevin Streelman	-454.6

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on the Waialea course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.19	Shots gained in approach
0.18	Driving accuracy
0.17	Putts per GIR
0.14	Driving distance

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Tom Kim	67.95
Taylor Montgomery	68.21
Russell Henley	68.47
David Lingmerth	68.48
Kevin Yu	68.71
Webb Simpson	68.75
Sungjae Im	68.79
SH Kim	68.80

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Kyle Stanley	70.9
Trevor Werbylo	70.5
Anders Albertson	70.5
Ryan Brehm	70.3
Michael Kim	70.2
Scott Harrington	70.1
Augusto Nunez	70.1
Trevor Cone	70.1

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.363
I love this place	0.166
Ooh, that’s hot	0.143
Location, location, location	0.025