09
Jan

Sony Open in Hawaii Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Is there any reason to think that players who got their year started in the Sentry Tournament of Champions have an edge the next week in the Sony Open in Hawaii? It doesn’t appear so. Over the last eight years, considering players who finished in the top three of the Champions event, only six backed it up with a top-10 finish in the Sony, the last being Joaquin Niemann in 2021; he made the top three both times. Of those who finished in the top three at the Champions over the last eight years, about 20 percent finished in the top 10 at the Sony, 20 percent made the Sony cut, 20 percent missed the Sony cut, and 40 percent took the week off.

This week we have 20-year-old Korean Tom Kim, already the winner of two PGA Tour events (Wyndham last August and Shriners last October), as favorite in the Sony. He’s a narrow choice over Brian Harman and rookie Taylor Montgomery. Kim has been a phenom since mid-summer 2022, with five other top-10s to go with the two wins. The most recent of these was a fifth last week. Two rookies who are off to good starts and in the Sony field are Montgomery and Ben Griffin.

Tom Kim
Tom Kim
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Tom Kim 28.6 97
2 Brian Harman 28.6 32
3 Taylor Montgomery 28.6 12
4 Sungjae Im 31.8 110
5 Jordan Spieth 33.7 77
6 Russell Henley 38.6 32
7 Hideki Matsuyama 39.5 48
8 Maverick McNealy 41.6 7
9 Corey Conners 41.8 12
10 Matt Kuchar 42.9 7
11 Adam Scott 43.4 21
12 Tom Hoge 43.6 41
13 Keegan Bradley 45.0 119
14 Keith Mitchell 45.3 89
15 Andrew Putnam 46.3 4
16 Alex Smalley 46.6 89
17 KH Lee 46.7 28
18 Billy Horschel 46.9 119
19 Ben Griffin 48.1 12
20 Brendan Steele 49.2 48
21 JJ Spaun 49.7 12
22 Cameron Davis 50.2 32
23 Si Woo Kim 50.3 1
24 Mac Hughes 52.1 130
25 Gary Woodland 52.5 97
26 Denny McCarthy 52.7 32
27 Webb Simpson 52.8 97
28 Patrick Rodgers 52.8 DNP
29 Harris English 52.8 73
30 Brendon Todd 53.0 21
31 Emiliano Grillo 53.0 97
32 Chris Kirk 53.7 3
33 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 54.1 140
34 Patton Kizzire 54.5 76
35 Hayden Buckley 55.0 2
36 Kurt Kitayama 55.4 73
37 Russell Knox 55.7 67
38 JT Poston 56.1 21
39 Ryan Palmer 56.6 32
40 Troy Merritt 57.0 65
41 Will Gordon 57.3 28
42 David Lipsky 57.3 4
43 Adam Svensson 58.1 41
44 Scott Piercy 58.6 77
45 David Lingmerth 59.4 119
46 Ben Taylor 59.4 4
47 Nick Hardy 59.5 41
48 Greyson Sigg 59.8 48
49 Aaron Rai 59.9 61
50 Stephan Jaeger 60.7 28
51 Kevin Streelman 61.0 137
52 Cole Hammer 61.7 61
53 Adam Schenk 61.8 67
54 Lucas Glover 61.8 97
55 Davis Thompson 61.9 54
56 Chez Reavie 62.1 41
57 SH Kim 62.7 12
58 Stewart Cink 62.7 21
59 Ryan Armour 62.9 77
60 Sam Ryder 62.9 89
61 James Hahn 63.0 DNP
62 Robby Shelton 63.4 130
63 Brandon Wu 64.0 77
64 Nick Taylor 64.0 7
65 Kevin Yu 64.3 21
66 Mark Hubbard 64.4 77
67 Michael Thompson 64.7 32
68 Jimmy Walker 64.8 97
69 Charley Hoffman 64.9 DNP
70 Adam Long 65.0 48
71 Zach Johnson 65.0 75
72 Brian Stuard 65.1 65
73 Chesson Hadley 65.6 89
74 John Huh 65.7 DNP
75 Harry Higgs 65.8 119
76 Tyson Alexander 66.1 32
77 Robert Streb 67.3 110
78 Peter Malnati 67.4 89
79 Harrison Endycott 67.6 137
80 Erik Barnes 67.6 97
81 Paul Haley 67.8 110
82 Byeong Hun An 67.9 12
83 Eric Cole 68.0 61
84 Danny Lee 68.2 48
85 Nate Lashley 68.4 7
86 Harry Hall 68.4 28
87 Keita Nakajima 68.5 54
88 Matthias Schwab 68.6 142
89 Joseph Bramlett 68.6 54
90 Aaron Baddeley 68.7 7
91 Satoshi Kodaira 68.7 DNP
92 Rory Sabbatini 68.9 77
93 Austin Smotherman 69.1 67
94 Doc Redman 69.1 32
95 Austin Cook 69.3 130
96 Ryan Moore 69.4 97
97 Max McGreevy 69.7 97
98 Tyler Duncan 69.8 119
99 Hank Lebioda 70.2 DNP
100 Carl Yuan 70.3 21
101 Brice Garnett 70.3 21
102 Ben Martin 70.3 32
103 Kramer Hickok 70.4 77
104 Justin Suh 70.5 41
105 Zecheng Dou 70.8 110
106 Andrew Novak 71.2 12
107 Seung-yul Noh 71.2 DNP
108 Chad Ramey 71.8 54
109 Richy Werenski 71.9 130
110 MJ Daffue 71.9 54
111 Kelly Kraft 72.0 61
112 Michael Gligic 72.2 136
113 Austin Eckroat 72.7 12
114 Jonathan Byrd 72.7 119
115 Jim Herman 72.8 77
116 Kyle Stanley 73.0 89
117 Kevin Tway 73.0 54
118 Dylan Wu 73.1 77
119 Matthias Schmid 73.1 77
120 Nicolas Echavarria 73.5 12
121 Kyle Westmoreland 73.7 110
122 Michael Kim 73.7 119
123 Martin Trainer 74.3 DNP
124 Bill Haas 74.3 DNP
125 Kazuki Higa 74.3 72
126 Yuto Katsuragawa 74.5 130
127 Vincent Norman 74.7 110
128 Zac Blair 74.9 48
129 Scott Harrington 75.1 119
130 Brent Grant 75.2 130
131 Estanislao Goya 75.5 97
132 Samuel Stevens 75.9 89
133 Jerry Kelly 76.0 89
134 Carson Young 76.1 119
135 Ryan Brehm 76.3 41
136 Kaito Onishi 76.6 97
137 Kevin Roy 76.6 110
138 Brandon Matthews 77.0 137
139 Anders Albertson 77.6 67
140 KJ Choi 78.0 77
141 Taiga Semikawa 78.1 67
142 Trevor Cone 78.3 77
143 Kohei Okada 78.3 141
144 Blaze Akana 78.5 119
145 Michael Castillo 78.5 144
146 Jesse Mueller 78.5 97
147 Augusto Nunez 78.7 41
148 Trevor Werbylo 78.7 119
Joseph Winslow late entry 58
Parker McLachlin late entry 97
Danny Guise late entry 112
George Markham late entry 118
Austen Truslow late entry 143
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 114. The average is 165. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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