16
Jan

The American Express Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

The American Express has attracted a very strong field. Four of the top five players in the Hawley Rankings – Patrick Cantlay, Joh Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Xander Schauffele – will play the Pete Dye Stadium Course, final-round venue for this three-course event, this week. The courses are located amid the PGA West complex of courses in beautiful La Quinta CA, near Palm Springs and about 130 miles southeast of downtown Los Angeles.

Also in the field are five others from the world top 20 and, overall, 45 of the top 100. From the latter group, Ben Taylor, Alex Smalley, Rickie Fowler, and Patrick Rodgers come in off of strong performances spanning late fall and early 2023. Among the big guys, Cantlay gets the nod based on his record in the event – top-10 finishes in all three of his appearances in the event over the past four years. He was 16th in the year-opening Champions event in Hawaii after a long layoff.

Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Patrick Cantlay 2.7 26
2 Jon Rahm 4.9 1
3 Scottie Scheffler 13.7 11
4 Xander Schauffele 20.2 3
5 Will Zalatoris 21.0 36
6 Taylor Montgomery 27.9 5
7 Tony Finau 31.2 16
8 Sungjae Im 33.1 18
9 Brian Harman 33.3 79
10 Cameron Young 35.6 26
11 Tom Kim 35.9 6
12 Adam Hadwin 36.8 18
13 Sam Burns 37.7 11
14 Aaron Wise 39.0 79
15 Joel Dahmen 40.0 DNP
16 Tom Hoge 42.3 32
17 Si Woo Kim 42.6 22
18 Sahith Theegala 43.6 54
19 Ben Griffin 44.5 32
20 Andrew Putnam 45.4 36
21 Alex Smalley 47.9 22
22 Ben Taylor 48.9 106
23 Keith Mitchell 49.0 22
24 Wyndham Clark 50.1 50
25 Rickie Fowler 50.2 54
26 KH Lee 50.3 70
27 Cameron Davis 50.5 120
28 David Lipsky 51.0 94
29 Matthew NeSmith 51.0 79
30 Davis Riley 51.1 65
31 Taylor Moore 51.2 79
32 Jason Day 51.8 18
33 Taylor Pendrith 51.9 79
34 Justin Rose 52.1 26
35 Brendan Steele 52.1 32
36 JT Poston 52.5 6
37 Denny McCarthy 52.5 50
38 Brendon Todd 52.6 79
39 Chris Kirk 52.7 3
40 Patrick Rodgers 53.0 134
41 Emiliano Grillo 55.1 70
42 Sebastian Munoz 55.4 41
43 Will Gordon 55.6 79
44 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 55.8 11
45 Thomas Detry 56.5 26
46 Harris English 56.7 70
47 Lee Hodges 56.8 115
48 Martin Laird 57.4 62
49 SH Kim 57.7 106
50 Beau Hossler 57.8 50
51 Troy Merritt 58.0 120
52 Jhonattan Vegas 58.3 79
53 Callum Tarren 58.8 79
54 Russell Knox 59.2 54
55 Stephan Jaeger 59.7 36
56 Nick Taylor 60.0 100
57 David Lingmerth 60.3 94
58 Greyson Sigg 60.5 79
59 Kevin Yu 60.7 106
60 Aaron Rai 60.8 100
61 Luke List 61.5 79
62 Adam Long 61.5 70
63 Erik van Rooyen 62.3 6
64 Dean Burmester 62.4 54
65 Patton Kizzire 62.5 11
66 Scott Piercy 62.5 41
67 Davis Thompson 62.9 2
68 Stewart Cink 63.0 41
69 Lucas Glover 63.0 129
70 Aaron Baddeley 63.1 50
71 Danny Willett 63.2 134
72 Nate Lashley 63.3 120
73 Tyson Alexander 63.7 134
74 Justin Lower 63.8 41
75 Adam Schenk 63.8 155
76 Byeong Hun An 64.1 41
77 John Huh 64.4 DNP
78 Nicolas Echavarria 64.4 70
79 Ryan Armour 64.7 65
80 Charley Hoffman 64.7 100
81 Mark Hubbard 64.7 70
82 Chez Reavie 64.8 145
83 Michael Thompson 64.9 134
84 Sam Ryder 64.9 100
85 Zac Blair 65.0 115
86 Dylan Frittelli 65.1 145
87 Carl Yuan 65.2 134
88 Doug Ghim 65.3 70
89 Brandon Wu 65.6 70
90 Robby Shelton 65.8 6
91 Harry Hall 66.2 41
92 Andrew Novak 66.3 150
93 Harry Higgs 66.5 18
94 Andrew Landry 66.9 68
95 Austin Eckroat 67.0 129
96 James Hahn 67.0 145
97 Chesson Hadley 67.6 79
98 Zach Johnson 68.4 41
99 Danny Lee 68.5 16
100 Erik Barnes 68.7 79
101 Joseph Bramlett 68.8 54
102 Robert Streb 68.8 144
103 Brice Garnett 68.9 134
104 Harrison Endycott 68.9 22
105 Eric Cole 69.1 36
106 Sean O’Hair 69.1 DNP
107 Matthias Schwab 69.2 26
108 Paul Haley 69.2 69
109 Chris Stroud 69.3 DNP
110 Ryan Moore 69.5 129
111 Peter Malnati 69.8 106
112 Austin Cook 69.8 36
113 Garrick Higgo 69.8 11
114 Bill Haas 69.8 134
115 Brian Stuard 69.9 152
116 Hank Lebioda 70.2 150
117 Satoshi Kodaira 70.2 129
118 Ben Martin 70.3 94
119 Tyler Duncan 70.5 41
120 Rory Sabbatini 70.5 145
121 William McGirt 70.6 DNP
122 Justin Suh 71.1 54
123 Nick Watney 71.2 129
124 Max McGreevy 71.4 120
125 Seung-yul Noh 71.6 115
126 Jason Dufner 71.8 106
127 MJ Daffue 72.0 100
128 Kramer Hickok 72.0 79
129 Richy Werenski 72.1 106
130 Zecheng Dou 72.3 62
131 Chad Ramey 72.3 DNP
132 Jimmy Walker 72.4 100
133 Michael Gligic 72.8 134
134 Kevin Tway 73.1 54
135 Jonathan Byrd 73.4 120
136 Dylan Wu 73.6 32
137 Fabian Gomez 73.6 DNP
138 Matthias Schmid 73.7 6
139 Michael Kim 74.1 115
140 Kyle Westmoreland 74.4 106
141 Martin Trainer 74.6 134
142 Brian Gay 74.7 DNP
143 Sung Kang 75.0 120
144 Philip Knowles 75.2 115
145 Vincent Norman 75.4 54
146 Kyle Stanley 75.4 DNP
147 Scott Harrington 75.5 120
148 Ryan Brehm 75.8 79
149 Brent Grant 76.3 156
150 Samuel Stevens 76.4 67
151 Estanislao Goya 76.4 26
152 Trevor Cone 76.8 120
153 Carson Young 76.8 94
154 Taiga Semikawa 76.8 106
155 Kevin Roy 77.2 70
156 John Pak 77.3 106
157 Augusto Nunez 77.3 120
158 Brandon Matthews 77.4 134
159 Gunner Wiebe 78.1 152
160 Anders Albertson 78.2 62
161 Michael Block 78.5 94
163 Trevor Werbylo 79.0 41
164 Caleb Surratt 79.0 94
Kevin Chappell late entry 146
Wesley Bryan late entry 154
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 254. The average is 165. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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