I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Adam Scott	0.752
Xander Schauffele	0.693
Max Homa	0.659
Patrick Cantlay	0.640
Jon Rahm	0.632
Rory McIlroy	0.619
Tony Finau	0.595
Jordan Spieth	0.509

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Jon Rahm	1	1952.4
Rory McIlroy	2	1813.5
Patrick Cantlay	3	1805.7
Scottie Scheffler	4	1752.3
Xander Schauffele	5	1738.4
Justin Thomas	7	1521.9
Sungjae Im	9	1404.2
Will Zalatoris	10	1357.4

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Dustin Johnson	6	1562.5
Cameron Smith	8	1452.7
Daniel Berger	19	1176.0
Talor Gooch	22	1162.6

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Jon Rahm	1391.7
Nick Taylor	1310.5
Jason Day	1218.3
Adam Hadwin	1036.5
Tony Finau	938.8
Taylor Moore	922.9
Sungjae Im	917.5
Si Woo Kim	869.6

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Will Zalatoris	-958.9
Shane Lowry	-825.2
Russell Henley	-744.0
Tommy Fleetwood	-693.9
Patrick Cantlay	-673.0
Billy Horschel	-669.4
Davis Riley	-652.2
Adam Scott	-581.5

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Riviera Country Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.16	Shots gained around the green
0.09	Shots gained off the tee
0.05	Putts per GIR
0.03	Shots gained in approach

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Jon Rahm	70.14
Cameron Young	70.17
Rory McIlroy	70.18
Kevin Yu	70.20
Will Zalatoris	70.23
Adrian Meronk	70.24
Taylor Montgomery	70.25
Tony Finau	70.27

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Nick Watney	70.9
Luke Donald	70.8
David Lingmerth	70.8
Max McGreevy	70.8
Chesson Hadley	70.7
Matt Wallace	70.7
Kevin Kisner	70.7
Harris English	70.7

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Pacific Palisades CA, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Justin Suh	Los Angeles Ca	16
Patrick Cantlay	Long Beach CA	27
JJ Spaun	San Dimas CA	41
Sahith Theegala	Chino Hills CA	44
Brendan Steele	Irvine Ca	48
Joseph Bramlett	Las Vegas NV	250
Nick Watney	Las Vegas NV	250
Doug Ghim	Las Vegas NV	250
Taylor Montgomery	Las Vegas NV	250
Seamus Power	Las Vegas NV	250
Collin Morikawa	Las Vegas NV	250
Scott Piercy	Las Vegas NV	250
David Lipsky	Las Vegas NV	250
Xander Schauffele	Las Vegas NV	250

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.365
I love this place	0.175
Ooh, that’s hot	0.128
Location, location, location	0.031