13
Feb

Genesis Invitational Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Although Jon Rahm didn’t quite close the deal the last two times out (third in Phoenix last week, seventh at the Farmers on Jan. 28), he has been very good for months, with nine straight top-10 finishes, among them five wins. He is no. 1 in the Hawley Ratings and the pick this week in the Genesis Invitational. This second consecutive “elevated” event on the PGA Tour is loaded with top competition, including everyone but two LIV players and Daniel Berger from the top 20.

Among those coming in off of strong recent performances are Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Xander Schauffele, and last week’s $3.6 million winner Scottie Scheffler. Among the biggest questions for the week is the playing condition of Tiger Woods. Who knows? In his last two appearances, he missed the cut by nine strokes in the July British Open and withdrew after the third round of the May PGA Championship.

Oddly, the winners of seven of the last 15 occurrences of this event have departed the PGA Tour for LIV. That includes the 2022 winner, Joaquin Niemann, and Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson (two wins), and Bubba Watson (three wins).

Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Jon Rahm -7.6 1
2 Xander Schauffele 4.5 33
3 Rory McIlroy 5.1 29
4 Scottie Scheffler 5.5 12
5 Patrick Cantlay 10.8 3
6 Justin Thomas 16.9 20
7 Tony Finau 18.0 20
8 Sungjae Im 18.8 56
9 Max Homa 21.3 2
10 Sam Burns 24.5 103
11 Collin Morikawa 25.9 6
12 Taylor Montgomery 28.4 69
13 Viktor Hovland 29.3 20
14 Tom Kim 30.7 45
15 Will Zalatoris 31.4 4
16 Tyrrell Hatton 32.2 40
17 Jason Day 32.8 9
18 Matthew Fitzpatrick 32.9 69
19 Jordan Spieth 32.9 69
20 Adam Scott 33.4 65
21 Cameron Young 33.4 20
22 Adam Hadwin 33.6 66
23 Keegan Bradley 35.7 94
24 Si Woo Kim 37.5 103
25 Seamus Power 38.3 14
26 Hideki Matsuyama 39.7 69
27 Justin Rose 40.1 69
28 Taylor Moore 40.9 69
29 Brian Harman 42.2 94
30 Keith Mitchell 42.5 5
31 Corey Conners 43.1 61
32 Shane Lowry 44.0 14
33 Chris Kirk 44.2 DNP
34 Rickie Fowler 45.0 20
35 Alex Noren 45.2 81
36 Matt Kuchar 45.4 8
37 Sahith Theegala 45.5 6
38 Joel Dahmen 45.8 103
39 Nick Taylor 46.2 33
40 Wyndham Clark 47.7 33
41 Billy Horschel 48.3 103
42 Scott Stallings 48.3 121
43 Russell Henley 48.3 69
44 Tommy Fleetwood 48.3 20
45 Ben Griffin 48.7 DNP
46 JT Poston 49.7 69
47 KH Lee 49.8 121
48 Tom Hoge 50.4 14
49 Denny McCarthy 50.8 14
50 Andrew Putnam 51.5 81
51 Lucas Herbert 51.5 58
52 Beau Hossler 51.9 81
53 Brendon Todd 52.1 94
54 Patrick Rodgers 52.2 81
55 Brendan Steele 52.7 DNP
56 JJ Spaun 52.9 33
57 Hayden Buckley 53.2 103
58 Jhonattan Vegas 53.6 56
59 SH Kim 54.1 33
60 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 54.3 58
61 Sam Ryder 55.2 20
62 Kevin Kisner 56.0 94
63 Alex Smalley 56.1 81
64 Robby Shelton 56.3 DNP
65 Gary Woodland 56.7 9
66 Gary Woodland 56.7 9
67 Thomas Detry 56.8 33
68 Cameron Davis 56.9 112
69 Kurt Kitayama 57.0 69
70 Davis Thompson 57.0 94
71 Adam Schenk 57.1 50
72 Kevin Yu 57.3 DNP
73 Davis Riley 57.7 DNP
74 Mac Hughes 58.0 50
75 Sepp Straka 59.0 45
76 Luke List 59.9 29
77 Dylan Frittelli 59.9 81
78 David Lipsky 60.2 62
79 Ben Taylor 60.6 58
80 Emiliano Grillo 60.8 67
81 Trey Mullinax 60.8 62
82 Joseph Bramlett 60.9 DNP
83 Matthew NeSmith 61.0 125
84 Troy Merritt 61.3 81
85 Peter Malnati 61.6 20
86 Francesco Molinari 61.8 125
87 Brandon Wu 61.9 94
88 Lanto Griffin 61.9 WD
89 Stephan Jaeger 62.2 40
90 Aaron Rai 62.3 29
91 Garrick Higgo 62.3 DNP
92 Nick Hardy 62.5 103
93 Martin Laird 62.6 112
94 Patton Kizzire 62.7 81
95 Adrian Meronk 62.9 45
96 Byeong Hun An 63.0 DNP
97 James Hahn 63.1 112
98 Harris English 63.4 12
99 Stewart Cink 63.5 94
100 Russell Knox 63.6 112
101 Lee Hodges 63.7 18
102 Callum Tarren 63.7 128
103 Adam Svensson 64.3 9
104 Kevin Streelman 64.4 50
105 Chez Reavie 64.4 112
106 Mark Hubbard 64.4 103
107 Scott Piercy 64.5 50
108 Will Gordon 64.9 DNP
109 Aaron Baddeley 65.1 DNP
110 Lucas Glover 65.2 69
111 Matt Wallace 65.3 112
112 Justin Lower 65.3 69
113 Danny Lee 65.4 81
114 Michael Thompson 65.5 45
115 Adam Long 65.5 50
116 Nate Lashley 65.7 20
117 Danny Willett 65.8 18
118 Cameron Champ 65.9 81
119 Greyson Sigg 65.9 121
120 Chesson Hadley 66.2 112
121 Kevin Tway 67.4 40
122 Justin Suh 67.6 40
123 Doug Ghim 67.9 62
124 Doc Redman 68.6 81
125 Tyson Alexander 68.8 DNP
126 Matthias Schwab 68.9 50
127 Robert Streb 70.0 103
128 David Lingmerth 70.3 DNP
129 Tyler Duncan 70.4 33
130 Luke Donald 71.3 40
131 Austin Smotherman 71.4 81
132 Keita Nakajima 71.5 69
133 Max McGreevy 72.4 81
134 Kramer Hickok 72.7 29
135 Chad Ramey 72.8 94
136 Kelly Kraft 72.8 103
137 JB Holmes 72.8 67
138 Nick Watney 73.3 121
139 Ryan Brehm 76.6 112
140 Tiger Woods 77.6 45
141 Yeongsu Kim 78.0 127
142 Marcus Byrd 78.5 112
Jack Wall late entry 102
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 339. The average is 164. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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