27
Feb

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

It seems logical to go with Jon Rahm until something happens to tell the world that this comet is slowing its blazing path across the golf courses of the PGA Tour. You probably already know that currently he has top-10s in 10 straight appearances, including five wins (three on the PGA Tour in 2023). We’ll just pass along the added fact that greens in regulation is by far the statistic most closely associated with success on the Bay Hill course, and Rahm leads the tour in that category.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational also includes a large majority of the world’s other best players — 39 of the top 50 per the Hawley ratings. Defending Palmer champion Scottie Scheffler also is playing great, with seven straight finishes in of 12th or better, including the Phoenix win. And Scheffler is second on the GIR list.

Looking for players on the upswing, 2020 Palmer winner Tyrrell Hatton, 2016 winner Jason Day, Keith Mitchell, and last week’s winner, Chris Kirk, are among those who have been outplaying their rating numbers in recent appearances. Tom Kim and Will Gordon are players who show up early on the greens in regulation list. Hatton, Kirk, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and 2018 winner Rory McIlroy are players who have had continued success in this event over the past eight years. McIlroy had a string of five straight top-10 finishes in the Palmer ended last year when he was 13th.

Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Jon Rahm -14.8 39
2 Scottie Scheffler -5.0 4
3 Rory McIlroy -0.7 2
4 Xander Schauffele 3.9 39
5 Patrick Cantlay 5.7 4
6 Max Homa 12.6 14
7 Sungjae Im 16.0 21
8 Justin Thomas 17.3 21
9 Tyrrell Hatton 19.0 4
10 Tony Finau 19.3 24
11 Will Zalatoris 20.1 53
12 Jason Day 22.5 10
13 Collin Morikawa 22.6 73
14 Matthew Fitzpatrick 25.2 14
15 Sam Burns 26.3 101
16 Viktor Hovland 28.6 10
17 Keith Mitchell 29.9 24
18 Cameron Young 33.1 10
19 Seamus Power 33.2 72
20 Chris Kirk 33.4 39
21 Sahith Theegala 34.3 14
22 Shane Lowry 35.1 67
23 Tom Kim 38.1 34
24 Corey Conners 39.4 21
25 Jordan Spieth 39.4 4
26 Taylor Montgomery 40.3 39
27 Keegan Bradley 41.1 10
28 Adam Hadwin 41.5 73
29 Tommy Fleetwood 41.5 61
30 Rickie Fowler 41.8 31
31 Hideki Matsuyama 42.8 91
32 Taylor Moore 43.9 39
33 Aaron Wise 44.3 105
34 Justin Rose 44.3 91
35 Brian Harman 45.1 118
36 Adam Scott 45.1 31
37 Si Woo Kim 45.4 39
38 Tom Hoge 46.2 73
39 Billy Horschel 49.6 84
40 Wyndham Clark 50.0 34
41 Sam Ryder 50.7 84
42 Russell Henley 51.2 53
43 Scott Stallings 51.7 91
44 Nick Taylor 52.1 84
45 Alex Noren 52.2 61
46 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 52.7 96
47 Joel Dahmen 52.7 109
48 Gary Woodland 52.8 91
49 Lucas Herbert 52.9 73
50 Beau Hossler 53.7 96
51 Andrew Putnam 53.9 34
52 Taylor Pendrith 53.9 101
53 JJ Spaun 54.0 73
54 KH Lee 54.1 53
55 Ben Griffin 55.2 14
56 Robby Shelton 55.8 39
57 Davis Riley 56.0 8
58 Patrick Rodgers 56.4 84
59 Min Woo Lee 56.4 113
60 Brendon Todd 56.5 39
61 Kevin Kisner 56.9 118
62 Alex Smalley 56.9 109
63 Lee Hodges 57.0 109
64 Thomas Detry 57.2 24
65 SH Kim 58.1 39
66 Kurt Kitayama 58.7 1
67 Sepp Straka 58.7 73
68 Mac Hughes 58.8 61
69 Harris English 58.9 2
70 Adam Svensson 59.1 24
71 Cameron Davis 59.1 73
72 Danny Willett 59.4 34
73 Peter Malnati 60.1 73
74 Adrian Meronk 60.4 113
75 Ben Taylor 60.5 53
76 Luke List 60.8 113
77 Emiliano Grillo 60.9 39
78 Eric Cole 60.9 105
79 Davis Thompson 60.9 53
80 Justin Suh 60.9 24
81 Francesco Molinari 61.0 14
82 Adam Schenk 61.0 31
83 Aaron Rai 61.4 53
84 Hayden Buckley 61.5 96
85 Zach Johnson 61.6 68
86 Matthew NeSmith 61.9 39
87 Dylan Frittelli 62.1 DNP
88 Joseph Bramlett 62.2 91
89 Byeong Hun An 62.4 WD
90 Charley Hoffman 62.7 101
91 David Lipsky 62.8 65
92 Trey Mullinax 63.2 8
93 Ryan Fox 63.5 14
94 Troy Merritt 63.6 84
95 Nick Hardy 64.1 84
96 Nate Lashley 64.6 DNP
97 Ryan Palmer 65.0 53
98 Stewart Cink 65.1 105
99 Patton Kizzire 65.3 73
100 Mark Hubbard 65.4 DNP
101 Garrick Higgo 65.5 73
102 Lucas Glover 65.7 109
103 Padraig Harrington 65.9 53
104 Webb Simpson 66.0 24
105 Martin Laird 66.5 39
106 Kevin Streelman 66.5 73
107 Callum Tarren 66.5 96
108 Harrison Endycott 66.6 DNP
109 Will Gordon 66.7 70
110 Justin Lower 66.7 96
111 Scott Piercy 67.1 DNP
112 Greyson Sigg 67.8 61
113 Chez Reavie 68.1 101
114 Erik Barnes 68.3 DNP
115 David Lingmerth 68.3 70
116 Andrew Novak 68.4 DNP
117 Aaron Baddeley 69.0 34
118 Cole Hammer 69.7 65
119 Thriston Lawrence 70.0 84
120 Ryan Armour 70.5 DNP
121 Tyson Alexander 71.6 117
122 Luke Donald 72.9 39
123 Ryan Brehm 75.0 113
124 Kyle Westmoreland 75.1 39
125 Pierceson Coody 76.5 14
126 Ludvig Aberg 77.5 24
127 Kamaiu Johnson 77.6 DQ
128 Greg Koch 77.6 68
More | Less
The accuracy number for these picks is 227. The average is 164. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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