I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Keegan Bradley	0.692
Justin Thomas	0.665
Shane Lowry	0.533
Tommy Fleetwood	0.511
Adam Scott	0.490
Adam Hadwin	0.479
Jason Day	0.473
Brian Harman	0.458

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	1	2078.4
Jon Rahm	2	2031.3
Rory McIlroy	3	1950.0
Scottie Scheffler	4	1922.8
Xander Schauffele	5	1694.3
Justin Thomas	6	1587.0
Max Homa	8	1469.5
Will Zalatoris	10	1463.2

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Dustin Johnson	7	1505.3
Cameron Smith	9	1464.1
Joaquin Niemann	21	1183.5
Daniel Berger	22	1180.4

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Jon Rahm	2173.6
Jason Day	1929.9
Chris Kirk	1498.9
Sam Ryder	1473.4
Max Homa	1366.3
Collin Morikawa	1312.6
Rickie Fowler	1283.7
Scottie Scheffler	1087.1

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Patrick Cantlay	-736.0
Jordan Spieth	-721.3
Davis Riley	-688.4
Russell Henley	-688.0
Brian Harman	-640.7
Andrew Putnam	-640.6
Aaron Wise	-627.0
Cameron Davis	-591.2

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC at Sawgrass course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.10	Shots gained in approach
0.10	Shots gained putting
0.10	Driving distance
0.07	Greens in regulation

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Min Woo Lee	71.71
Rory McIlroy	71.89
Will Zalatoris	72.00
Jon Rahm	72.00
Tom Kim	72.02
Scottie Scheffler	72.06
Xander Schauffele	72.11
Tony Finau	72.14

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
David Lingmerth	73.6
Max McGreevy	73.5
Harrison Endycott	73.3
Zecheng Dou	73.3
Ryan Fox	73.3
Michael Kim	73.2
Harry Higgs	73.2
Kelly Kraft	73.2

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Ponte Vedra Beach FL, the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Tyson Alexander	Jacksonville Beach FL	6
David Lingmerth	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	8
Lanto Griffin	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	8
Tyler Duncan	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	8
Russell Knox	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	8
Billy Horschel	Ponte Vedra Beach FL	8
Sam Ryder	Atlantic Beach FL	9
Doc Redman	Jacksonville FL	18

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.366
I love this place	0.175
Ooh, that’s hot	0.127
Location, location, location	0.026