06
Mar

The Players Championship Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment


How about this for a threesome in the first two rounds of the Players Championship this week? It’s Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Scottie Scheffler. Together with Patrick Cantlay, the four of them have at least for now separated themselves atop the list of the world’s best golfers. A pair of 76s in the middle two rounds doomed Rahm in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, cutting off his streak of 10 straight appearances with a top-10 finish. He still looms as the one to beat this weeek in the Players.

Scheffler’s current form is good enough to label him as the hottest player in the game were it not for Rahm. Scheffler has one win (Phoenix), two other top 10s, and two other finishes jut outside the top 10 so far this year. McIlroy, last week’s runner-up, has one win (the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour) and two February made cuts so far this year. Cantlay also had two uninspiring finishes — Phoenix and the AmEx — before finishing in the top five in the Genesis and Palmer.

TPC at Sawgrass has always been a great test of players’ skills across the board. The top three stats as measured by correlation with success in the event over the past eight years are shots gained in approach, shots gained putting, and driving distance. Most of the top favorites have stat profiles that are well-aligned, although you might be surprised to know that Min Woo Lee — primarily a player on the DP World Tour — is the player who has the best fit for the course based on those stats. He is in the top 20 percent in SG approach and driving distance and in the top five percent in SG putting. The next-best fits for the course are Rahm, Will Zalatoris, Tom Kim, and Scheffler. Keegan Bradley has had a pretty good sequence in this event the last six years with two top-10s (fifth last year), a top-20, and three made cuts.

Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Jon Rahm -19.0 WD
2 Scottie Scheffler -2.8 1
3 Rory McIlroy -0.4 98
4 Patrick Cantlay 2.2 19
5 Xander Schauffele 3.2 19
6 Justin Thomas 6.4 60
7 Jason Day 11.7 19
8 Max Homa 13.4 6
9 Tony Finau 18.1 19
10 Will Zalatoris 19.2 73
11 Sungjae Im 21.7 6
12 Collin Morikawa 23.9 13
13 Viktor Hovland 27.5 3
14 Sam Burns 28.2 35
15 Shane Lowry 28.9 35
16 Tyrrell Hatton 29.3 2
17 Matthew Fitzpatrick 30.0 76
18 Cameron Young 30.7 51
19 Keegan Bradley 31.7 89
20 Keith Mitchell 32.0 35
21 Sahith Theegala 32.4 74
22 Seamus Power 32.8 107
23 Jordan Spieth 35.0 19
24 Tommy Fleetwood 36.8 27
25 Chris Kirk 37.2 89
26 Brian Harman 37.9 44
27 Tom Kim 38.3 51
28 Corey Conners 38.5 107
29 Adam Scott 39.3 71
30 Adam Hadwin 39.5 13
31 Rickie Fowler 40.0 13
32 Taylor Montgomery 40.7 44
33 Matt Kuchar 43.0 89
34 Justin Rose 43.5 6
35 Taylor Moore 43.7 35
36 Si Woo Kim 43.8 27
37 Denny McCarthy 43.9 13
38 Tom Hoge 44.2 3
39 Hideki Matsuyama 44.5 5
40 Aaron Wise 45.0 136
41 Maverick McNealy 46.5 60
42 Wyndham Clark 49.3 27
43 Alex Noren 49.5 98
44 Billy Horschel 50.4 121
45 Jhonattan Vegas 50.5 121
46 Nick Taylor 50.9 98
47 Sam Ryder 50.9 44
48 Ben Griffin 51.0 35
49 Russell Henley 51.1 19
50 Joel Dahmen 51.5 60
51 Scott Stallings 51.7 69
52 JT Poston 52.9 107
53 Davis Riley 52.9 89
54 Gary Woodland 53.3 54
55 KH Lee 53.4 98
56 Lucas Herbert 53.6 143
57 Andrew Putnam 53.9 76
58 Taylor Pendrith 54.0 69
59 JJ Spaun 54.2 76
60 Kevin Kisner 54.3 75
61 Kurt Kitayama 54.4 98
62 Robby Shelton 55.0 107
63 Beau Hossler 55.0 121
64 Harris English 55.9 98
65 Thomas Detry 56.0 76
66 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 56.0 13
67 Min Woo Lee 56.5 6
68 Brendon Todd 56.8 27
69 Alex Smalley 57.0 65
70 Lee Hodges 57.1 128
71 SH Kim 57.5 128
72 Patrick Rodgers 57.5 89
73 Adam Svensson 57.7 13
74 Sepp Straka 58.1 65
75 Webb Simpson 58.2 121
76 Justin Suh 58.6 6
77 Mac Hughes 58.8 115
78 Cameron Davis 59.2 6
79 Brandon Wu 59.3 19
80 Francesco Molinari 59.6 60
81 Danny Willett 59.8 27
82 Stephan Jaeger 59.8 44
83 Peter Malnati 59.9 89
84 Trey Mullinax 60.0 136
85 Emiliano Grillo 60.0 76
86 Adam Schenk 60.5 89
87 Ryan Fox 61.0 27
88 Dylan Frittelli 61.0 115
89 Aaron Rai 61.2 19
90 Davis Thompson 61.2 68
91 Eric Cole 61.2 27
92 Matthew NeSmith 61.3 135
93 Hayden Buckley 61.7 76
94 Luke List 61.9 76
95 Joseph Bramlett 62.1 98
96 Erik van Rooyen 62.2 DNP
97 Russell Knox 62.5 121
98 Byeong Hun An 62.5 35
99 David Lipsky 62.9 136
100 Ryan Palmer 62.9 76
101 Nate Lashley 63.0 60
102 Lanto Griffin 63.1 DNP
103 Patton Kizzire 63.5 65
104 Nick Hardy 64.2 107
105 Chesson Hadley 64.3 44
106 Ben Martin 64.4 54
107 Troy Merritt 64.6 76
108 Adam Long 64.6 128
109 Tyler Duncan 65.0 54
110 Mark Hubbard 65.0 35
111 Stewart Cink 65.2 128
112 Garrick Higgo 65.4 44
113 Martin Laird 65.9 140
114 Lucas Glover 66.2 51
115 Doug Ghim 66.2 133
116 Harrison Endycott 66.3 76
117 Michael Thompson 66.3 98
118 Callum Tarren 66.5 107
119 Ryan Moore 66.5 DNP
120 Kevin Streelman 66.6 76
121 Justin Lower 66.7 115
122 Matt Wallace 66.8 76
123 Will Gordon 66.8 54
124 Scott Piercy 66.8 76
125 Kramer Hickok 67.1 44
126 Greyson Sigg 67.7 115
127 Harry Hall 67.9 DNP
128 Aaron Baddeley 68.0 72
129 Harry Higgs 68.0 DNP
130 Andrew Novak 68.1 133
131 Chez Reavie 68.2 89
132 Erik Barnes 68.4 107
133 David Lingmerth 68.5 6
134 James Hahn 68.7 98
135 Dylan Wu 69.1 35
136 Cameron Percy 69.2 DNP
137 Michael Kim 69.3 DNP
138 Kevin Tway 69.8 89
139 Chris Stroud 69.9 DNP
140 Ryan Armour 70.6 115
141 Matthias Schwab 70.7 54
142 Doc Redman 70.9 121
143 Robert Streb 71.7 115
144 Tyson Alexander 71.7 128
145 Austin Smotherman 72.1 35
146 Max McGreevy 73.4 141
147 Kelly Kraft 73.6 136
148 Chad Ramey 73.9 27
149 Nick Watney 74.0 141
150 Ryan Brehm 74.7 121
151 Zecheng Dou 75.0 DNP
152 Jerry Kelly 77.2 54
Nico Echavarria late entry 113
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Mar. 13, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 186. The average is 164. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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