I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Matt Kuchar	0.750
Si Woo Kim	0.590
Corey Conners	0.578
Lucas Glover	0.570
Martin Laird	0.566
Aaron Baddeley	0.563
Chris Kirk	0.561
Charley Hoffman	0.548

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Tyrrell Hatton	12	1400.8
Taylor Montgomery	22	1180.2
Keith Mitchell	28	1058.8
Hideki Matsuyama	31	1033.7
Corey Conners	34	983.2
Rickie Fowler	37	974.1
Ben Griffin	42	899.9
Si Woo Kim	45	898.3

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2130.5
Patrick Cantlay	2	2125.7
Rory McIlroy	3	1962.7
Jon Rahm	4	1925.4

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Tyrrell Hatton	2642.4
Rickie Fowler	1754.4
David Lingmerth	985.3
Ryan Fox	734.1
Keith Mitchell	615.8
Matt Wallace	477.1
Eric Cole	411.3
Davis Riley	359.4

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Taylor Montgomery	-876.0
Alex Noren	-748.7
Andrew Putnam	-633.1
Taylor Pendrith	-604.2
Corey Conners	-592.2
Beau Hossler	-562.4
JJ Spaun	-544.8
Hayden Buckley	-509.2

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on the TPC San Antonio course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.13	Putts per GIR
0.13	Shots gained in approach
0.05	Driving accuracy
0.04	Shots gained off the tee

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Taylor Montgomery	71.73
Davis Riley	72.08
Hideki Matsuyama	72.08
Ryan Moore	72.09
Byeong Hun An	72.17
Mark Hubbard	72.17
Ben Griffin	72.18
Satoshi Kodaira	72.19

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Kyle Stanley	73.7
JB Holmes	73.7
Trevor Werbylo	73.5
Andrew Landry	73.3
Jimmy Walker	73.3
Augusto Nunez	73.2
Trevor Cone	73.2
Brent Grant	73.2

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and San Antonio TX, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Andrew Landry	Austin TX	50
Dylan Frittelli	Austin TX	50
Mark Hubbard	The Woodlands TX	175
Brian Stuard	Fort Worth TX	175
Michael Kim	Houston TX	175
MJ Daffue	Kingwood TX	200
Max McGreevy	Dallas TX	225
Paul Haley	Dallas TX	225
Si Woo Kim	Dallas TX	225
Kelly Kraft	Dallas TX	225
Zecheng Dou	Dallas TX	225
Beau Hossler	Dallas TX	225
Harry Higgs	Dallas TX	225
Ryan Palmer	Colleyville TX	225
Austin Smotherman	Dallas TX	225
Kramer Hickok	Dallas TX	225

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.371
I love this place	0.171
Ooh, that’s hot	0.131
Location, location, location	0.112