I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Matt Kuchar	0.775
Webb Simpson	0.645
Shane Lowry	0.547
Patrick Cantlay	0.538
Brian Harman	0.513
JT Poston	0.492
Corey Conners	0.484
Matthew Fitzpatrick	0.463

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2165.6
Patrick Cantlay	2	2143.7
Jon Rahm	3	2002.1
Rory McIlroy	4	1903.9
Xander Schauffele	5	1827.3
Max Homa	6	1600.2
Viktor Hovland	7	1557.8
Sungjae Im	8	1524.4

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Dustin Johnson	10	1415.2
Cameron Smith	15	1367.2
Daniel Berger	21	1197.0
Joaquin Niemann	23	1159.7

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Scottie Scheffler	1757.2
Viktor Hovland	1588.6
Cameron Young	1452.8
Jason Day	1248.8
Russell Henley	1041.9
Kurt Kitayama	1005.7
Jordan Spieth	997.7
Rickie Fowler	927.7

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Will Zalatoris	-1304.3
Jon Rahm	-964.2
Seamus Power	-787.5
Maverick McNealy	-680.2
Matthew Fitzpatrick	-621.9
Taylor Pendrith	-620.6
Joel Dahmen	-593.0
Justin Thomas	-531.4

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of Harbour Town Golf Links, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.31	Shots gained off the tee
0.20	Driving accuracy
0.15	Sand saves
0.14	Shots gained around the green

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Matthew Fitzpatrick	69.07
Sungjae Im	69.11
Rory McIlroy	69.33
Jon Rahm	69.64
Keith Mitchell	69.65
Corey Conners	69.70
Cameron Young	69.70
Xander Schauffele	69.70

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Wesley Bryan	73.9
Ryan Brehm	73.3
Richy Werenski	73.0
Luke Donald	72.4
Carson Young	72.3
Chesson Hadley	72.3
Matt Wallace	72.2
Garrick Higgo	72.2

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Hilton Head Island, home of the event venue.

Player	Residence	Distance
Russell Henley	Kiawah Island SC	49
Keith Mitchell	St. Simons Island GA	75
JT Poston	St. Simons Island GA	75
Davis Thompson	St. Simons Island GA	75
Greyson Sigg	St. Simons Island GA	75
Matt Kuchar	St. Simons Island GA	75
Brian Harman	St. Simons Island GA	75
Zach Johnson	St. Simons Island GA	75

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.374
I love this place	0.177
Ooh, that’s hot	0.129
Location, location, location	0.108