10
Apr

RBC Heritage Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

We’ll go with Patrick Cantlay as the choice in this week’s RBC Heritage, based largely on his record of four top-10 finishes in his five lifetime appearances in the event. He lost to Jordan Spieth in a playoff last year, missed the cut in 2021, and was third twice and seventh between 2017 and 2019. He also is a very good fit for the course and comes in with a string of five straight top-20 finishes.

And speaking of extended stretches of top-level performance, consider Scottie Scheffler. He’s played at least once per month since November, 11 events, and has two wins (TPC and Phoenix), a second, a third, two fourths, three other top-10s, an 11th, and a 12th. For that, he is the top-rated player in the world and a close second choice in the Heritage. Add to that, he is just a shade behind Cantlay as the second-best fit for the course in the field.

As an elevated event on the PGA Tour this season, the $20 million Heritage does not lack for high-end participation. The field includes all of the top 25 in the Hawley Rankings, excluding LIV and injured players. Among those, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Young, Jason Day, Russell Henley, Kurt Kitayama, and Spieth arrive playing in strongly improved form over their last four starts.

The tee box is where a good deal of differentiation has occurred in recent playings of the event at Harbour Town. Shots gained off the tee and driving accuracy are the stats where strong performance has the highest correlation with success in the last eight years. As noted, Cantlay and Scheffler have statistics profiles that are the best fits for the course, followed by Sungjae Im and Keith Mitchell. Guys who should like the track from a little farther down in the rankings include Brian Harman, Matt Kuchar, Hayden Buckley, and Min Woo Lee.

Patrick Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Patrick Cantlay -19.3 3
2 Scottie Scheffler -16.5 11
3 Xander Schauffele 0.4 4
4 Jon Rahm 4.7 15
5 Viktor Hovland 9.5 59
6 Max Homa 9.8 116
7 Sungjae Im 10.8 7
8 Jordan Spieth 11.1 2
9 Cameron Young 15.2 51
10 Tony Finau 18.6 31
11 Collin Morikawa 22.1 31
12 Justin Thomas 22.3 25
13 Sam Burns 24.5 15
14 Tyrrell Hatton 24.6 19
15 Shane Lowry 25.1 67
16 Matt Kuchar 27.8 19
17 Matthew Fitzpatrick 28.1 1
18 Sahith Theegala 32.3 5
19 Russell Henley 33.8 19
20 Tom Kim 34.0 74
21 Corey Conners 35.5 31
22 JT Poston 36.1 74
23 Taylor Montgomery 36.6 111
24 Rickie Fowler 36.6 15
25 Tommy Fleetwood 37.3 15
26 Justin Rose 38.9 25
27 Keith Mitchell 40.8 116
28 Keegan Bradley 40.9 48
29 Si Woo Kim 41.3 111
30 Wyndham Clark 42.0 29
31 Chris Kirk 42.1 41
32 Denny McCarthy 42.2 25
33 Adam Hadwin 42.2 116
34 Brian Harman 43.3 7
35 Seamus Power 43.9 134
36 Taylor Moore 44.1 11
37 Cameron Davis 44.4 7
38 Kurt Kitayama 44.7 88
39 Tom Hoge 44.8 134
40 Adam Scott 45.0 31
41 Andrew Putnam 46.8 59
42 Justin Suh 46.9 73
43 Webb Simpson 47.9 88
44 Maverick McNealy 48.4 88
45 Billy Horschel 48.5 101
46 Harris English 49.4 63
47 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 51.0 19
48 Nick Taylor 51.0 41
49 Adam Svensson 51.4 41
50 Scott Stallings 52.1 56
51 Min Woo Lee 52.3 74
52 Brendon Todd 52.4 51
53 JJ Spaun 52.7 101
54 KH Lee 52.8 41
55 Davis Riley 52.9 74
56 Ryan Fox 52.9 WD
57 Sam Ryder 53.5 88
58 Ben Griffin 53.7 31
59 Mac Hughes 53.9 101
60 Gary Woodland 54.7 31
61 Lucas Herbert 55.1 63
62 Thomas Detry 55.3 88
63 Joel Dahmen 56.1 74
64 Aaron Rai 56.6 48
65 SH Kim 56.7 DNP
66 Byeong Hun An 57.0 DNP
67 Patrick Rodgers 57.0 19
68 Robby Shelton 57.1 DNP
69 Stephan Jaeger 57.4 111
70 Danny Willett 57.4 56
71 Sepp Straka 57.5 128
72 Brandon Wu 57.6 101
73 Adam Schenk 58.2 31
74 Taylor Pendrith 58.3 74
75 Lee Hodges 58.9 41
76 David Lingmerth 59.1 DNP
77 Emiliano Grillo 59.1 7
78 Erik van Rooyen 59.2 74
79 Trey Mullinax 59.2 88
80 Kevin Kisner 59.3 DNP
81 Alex Smalley 59.5 74
82 Hayden Buckley 59.9 5
83 Michael Thompson 60.0 29
84 Matthew NeSmith 60.4 59
85 Lanto Griffin 60.9 123
86 Troy Merritt 61.0 74
87 Ben Taylor 61.1 128
88 Matt Wallace 61.2 137
89 Beau Hossler 61.5 31
90 Samuel Stevens 61.7 101
91 Davis Thompson 61.8 63
92 CT Pan 61.8 101
93 Eric Cole 62.2 DNP
94 David Lipsky 63.1 74
95 Scott Piercy 63.3 74
96 Ben Martin 63.3 41
97 Ryan Palmer 63.4 88
98 Luke List 63.6 132
99 Nick Hardy 63.6 111
100 Kevin Streelman 63.8 51
101 Lucas Glover 63.9 132
102 Patton Kizzire 64.2 31
103 Zach Johnson 64.3 54
104 Peter Malnati 64.3 116
105 Dylan Frittelli 64.4 WD
106 Stewart Cink 64.5 74
107 Mark Hubbard 64.8 11
108 Chez Reavie 64.8 11
109 Andrew Novak 64.9 DNP
110 Russell Knox 65.1 137
111 Tyler Duncan 65.3 88
112 Adam Long 66.1 59
113 Nate Lashley 66.2 31
114 Doug Ghim 66.4 54
115 Martin Laird 66.6 116
116 Zac Blair 66.7 DNP
117 Callum Tarren 67.2 74
118 Chesson Hadley 67.3 88
119 Garrick Higgo 67.4 48
120 Satoshi Kodaira 67.4 88
121 Luke Donald 67.7 67
122 Greyson Sigg 68.4 88
123 Justin Lower 68.8 71
124 Doc Redman 68.8 101
125 Cameron Champ 69.1 128
126 Chad Ramey 69.3 123
127 Austin Smotherman 69.4 67
128 Matthias Schwab 69.4 101
129 James Hahn 69.5 41
130 Kramer Hickok 69.6 72
131 Nico Echavarria 69.6 111
132 Jimmy Walker 69.7 25
133 Ryan Moore 70.4 116
134 Wesley Bryan 71.6 101
135 Robert Streb 71.6 74
136 Akshay Bhatia 71.9 123
137 Kevin Tway 72.1 88
138 Richy Werenski 72.2 123
139 Andrew Landry 72.6 88
140 Kelly Kraft 73.1 116
141 Jim Furyk 73.4 137
142 Jim Herman 73.4 67
143 Brian Gay 73.7 134
144 Max McGreevy 73.7 63
145 Jason Dufner 74.3 123
146 Carson Young 75.0 19
147 Ryan Brehm 75.9 101
148 Ernie Els 77.1 56
149 JB Holmes 77.2 DNP
150 Davis Love 77.6 DNP
151 Tommy Gibson 77.6 130
More | Less
Apr. 17, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 177. The average is 160. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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