24
Apr

Mexico Open at Vidanta Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

It’s not exactly like Snow White and the seven dwarfs, but this week Jon Rahm is alone among the PGA Tour five big names of 2023 on the entry list in the Mexico Open. Tony Finau is the second-highest-ranked player in the field at no. 11 (Hawley Rankings). From there you drop down to no. 49, and there are only 11 more from the top 100. Maybe a better way to put it is to observe that some nice chunks from a $7.7 million purse are going to go to guys who usually have a harder time getting near the top.

Rahm’s last two top-10s were wins in the Masters and Genesis. Since the February win in Pacific Palisades CA, the defending champion in this event also has a missed cut at TPC, in-the-pack finishes at the Match Play and Palmer, and a recent top-20 at the Heritage. Finau hasn’t had a top-10 since January but he has been fairly steady with a worst finish of 31st in seven events since the Super Bowl weekend.

This is the second year in which the event is being played at the Vidanta Vallarta course near the Pacific coast. Last year’s results showed a correlation between success and strong performance in driving distance and putting. Rahm has a huge lead on the rest of the field in the extent to which he appears to be a strong fit for the course. Byeong Hun An, Finau, and Wyndham Clark, in that order, appear to be next-best. Clark was half of the third-place team in last week’s Zurich. He hasn’t missed a cut since October, a stretch of 14 events in which he has five top-10s, including two last month. Also playing well recently is Chez Reavie, not a particularly good fit for the course but 11th at the Heritage and sixth at Texas in his last two times out. From farther back in the pack, Tour veteran Sean O’Hair has been in the top 20 twice out of his last three appearances, and MJ Daffue has done the same in two of his last four.

Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Jon Rahm -12.6 2
2 Tony Finau 15.3 1
3 Wyndham Clark 37.4 24
4 Andrew Putnam 49.5 24
5 Davis Riley 49.6 DNP
6 Patrick Rodgers 49.7 10
7 Gary Woodland 49.7 39
8 Maverick McNealy 52.0 60
9 Byeong Hun An 53.0 33
10 Aaron Rai 53.2 104
11 Beau Hossler 53.3 10
12 Alex Noren 54.5 104
13 Emiliano Grillo 55.6 5
14 Chez Reavie 56.2 49
15 SH Kim 56.3 24
16 Nick Hardy 58.0 DNP
17 Taylor Pendrith 58.0 30
18 Stephan Jaeger 58.3 18
19 Lee Hodges 58.3 73
20 Robby Shelton 59.3 114
21 Lanto Griffin 59.6 66
22 David Lipsky 60.0 60
23 Alex Smalley 60.0 114
24 Francesco Molinari 60.7 24
25 Patton Kizzire 61.1 74
26 Mark Hubbard 61.2 18
27 Brandon Wu 62.1 3
28 Ben Martin 62.6 46
29 Erik van Rooyen 63.8 33
30 Ben Taylor 64.3 8
31 Matt Wallace 64.5 104
32 Nate Lashley 64.6 39
33 Eric Cole 64.7 5
34 MJ Daffue 64.8 104
35 Sean O’Hair 65.0 97
36 Luke List 65.4 74
37 Peter Malnati 65.5 138
38 Andrew Novak 65.7 49
39 Kevin Streelman 65.9 74
40 Will Gordon 65.9 24
41 Nicolai Hojgaard 66.1 33
42 Dylan Frittelli 66.1 138
43 Jimmy Walker 66.1 15
44 Adam Long 66.5 18
45 Lucas Glover 66.5 81
46 Harry Hall 66.6 10
47 Garrick Higgo 66.9 81
48 Matthias Schwab 67.0 104
49 Charley Hoffman 67.3 55
50 Martin Laird 67.3 97
51 Callum Tarren 67.5 122
52 Joseph Bramlett 67.6 10
53 Cody Gribble 67.9 55
54 Aaron Baddeley 68.0 39
55 Harry Higgs 68.1 114
56 Vincent Norrman 68.3 18
57 Cameron Champ 68.5 8
58 Cameron Percy 68.6 60
59 Scott Piercy 68.7 39
60 Doug Ghim 69.0 104
61 Greyson Sigg 69.0 18
62 Michael Kim 69.2 30
63 James Hahn 69.2 49
64 Dylan Wu 69.3 15
65 Martin Trainer 69.9 81
66 Doc Redman 70.1 81
67 Ryan Gerard 70.4 33
68 Nico Echavarria 70.5 66
69 Carson Young 70.7 15
70 Henrik Norlander 70.8 131
71 Harrison Endycott 71.0 97
72 Austin Smotherman 71.2 5
73 Satoshi Kodaira 71.2 49
74 Ryan Moore 71.4 33
75 Ryan Armour 71.4 126
76 Matthias Schmid 71.5 81
77 Austin Eckroat 71.9 49
78 Kevin Chappell 71.9 24
79 Brice Garnett 72.0 33
80 Seung-yul Noh 72.3 46
81 Tyson Alexander 72.4 97
82 Brent Grant 72.4 104
83 Kevin Tway 72.5 81
84 Brandon Matthews 72.5 104
85 Chris Stroud 72.5 122
86 Paul Haley 72.7 122
87 William McGirt 72.9 81
88 Hank Lebioda 73.0 126
89 Austin Cook 73.0 39
90 Richy Werenski 73.2 46
91 Akshay Bhatia 73.2 4
92 Michael Gligic 73.2 39
93 Brian Stuard 73.5 114
94 Bill Haas 73.6 70
95 Estanislao Goya 73.7 60
96 Carl Yuan 73.9 55
97 Kelly Kraft 74.0 74
98 Max McGreevy 74.2 138
99 Nick Watney 74.2 97
100 Augusto Nunez 74.4 69
101 Ricky Barnes 74.5 131
102 Kyle Westmoreland 74.5 74
103 Jonathan Byrd 74.6 55
104 Sung Kang 74.7 134
105 Jonas Blixt 75.0 72
106 Grayson Murray 75.2 126
107 Bo Van Pelt 75.4 145
108 Alejandro Tosti 75.4 10
109 Geoff Ogilvy 75.4 39
110 Wesley Bryan 75.6 136
111 Scott Harrington 75.6 81
112 Robert Garrigus 75.7 145
113 Zecheng Dou 75.7 49
114 Trevor Werbylo 75.7 30
115 Fabian Gomez 75.7 122
116 Ryan Brehm 75.9 DNP
117 JB Holmes 76.2 81
118 Derek Lamely 76.2 66
119 Tommy Gainey 76.2 145
120 Derek Ernst 76.3 60
121 Greg Chalmers 76.4 81
122 Cristobal Del Solar 76.5 81
123 Scott Brown 76.7 81
124 Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 76.7 114
125 Kevin Roy 76.8 18
126 David Hearn 76.8 145
127 Kyle Reifers 77.0 104
128 Alvaro Ortiz 77.1 114
129 Johnson Wagner 77.1 145
130 DA Points 77.1 131
131 Ben Crane 77.2 114
132 George McNeill 77.2 134
133 Camilo Villegas 77.2 81
134 Boo Weekley 77.3 136
135 DJ Trahan 77.3 97
136 Arjun Atwal 77.3 104
137 Ted Potter 77.4 81
138 JJ Henry 77.5 145
139 Jose Toledo 77.5 97
140 Kevin Stadler 77.5 143
141 Brian Davis 77.5 138
142 Zachary Bauchou 77.6 126
143 Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira 77.6 81
144 Jose Cristobal Islas 77.6 126
145 Steve Jurgensen 77.6 144
146 Roberto Lebrija 77.6 138
147 Omar Morales 77.6 74
148 Raul Pereda de la Huerta 77.6 60
149 Sebastian Vazquez 77.6 55
150 Richard Johnson 77.6 145
151 Mark Hensby 77.6 145
152 Trevor Cone 78.2 70
153 Kyle Stanley 78.9 81
More | Less
Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

Share
0 comment
0 Like
Thomas HawleyCreative art