I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Rory McIlroy	0.859
Brian Harman	0.665
Rickie Fowler	0.515
Joel Dahmen	0.513
Luke List	0.511
Jason Day	0.464
JT Poston	0.455
Keith Mitchell	0.454

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	1	2276.5
Xander Schauffele	4	1970.0
Rory McIlroy	5	1927.0
Sungjae Im	6	1639.5
Justin Thomas	7	1540.6
Jordan Spieth	8	1526.8
Viktor Hovland	9	1526.1
Max Homa	10	1519.2

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	2	2241.9
Jon Rahm	3	2043.1
Cameron Smith	14	1382.7
Will Zalatoris	16	1364.1

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Cameron Davis	1853.6
Taylor Moore	1433.1
Jordan Spieth	1299.3
Rickie Fowler	1283.2
Jason Day	1234.6
Patrick Rodgers	1000.7
Xander Schauffele	970.9
Matt Kuchar	884.3

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Max Homa	-1117.8
Tyrrell Hatton	-832.6
Seamus Power	-754.8
Keith Mitchell	-655.1
Justin Thomas	-642.2
Trey Mullinax	-511.4
Alex Noren	-481.1
Joel Dahmen	-431.5

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Quail Hollow course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.21	Shots gained off the tee
0.12	Shots gained in approach
0.10	Shots gained around the green
0.10	Sand saves

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Rory McIlroy	69.96
Patrick Cantlay	70.40
Tyrrell Hatton	70.61
Collin Morikawa	70.71
Sungjae Im	70.72
Justin Thomas	70.74
Tony Finau	70.80
Keith Mitchell	70.84

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Nick Watney	74.2
Max McGreevy	73.8
Kelly Kraft	73.6
Rory Sabbatini	73.5
Ryan Brehm	73.4
Cameron Champ	73.1
Richy Werenski	73.1
Doc Redman	73.0

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Charlotte NC, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Mac Hughes	Charlotte NC	10
Webb Simpson	Charlotte NC	10
Alex Smalley	Greensboro NC	75
Ben Martin	Greenville SC	100
Carson Young	Greenville SC	100
Ben Griffin	Chapel Hill NC	100
Matthew NeSmith	Aiken SC	125
Chesson Hadley	Raleigh NC	125

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.370
I love this place	0.175
Ooh, that’s hot	0.131
Location, location, location	0.107