I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jordan Spieth	0.744
Hideki Matsuyama	0.584
Matt Kuchar	0.581
KH Lee	0.517
Scott Stallings	0.512
Ryan Palmer	0.477
Seamus Power	0.431
Nate Lashley	0.375

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	2	2253.6
Tyrrell Hatton	9	1503.2
Jordan Spieth	11	1476.5
Jason Day	19	1300.1
Tom Kim	23	1170.5
Hideki Matsuyama	30	1107.3
Adam Scott	31	1097.4
Matt Kuchar	32	1068.1

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	1	2272.3
Xander Schauffele	3	2077.5
Jon Rahm	4	2049.2
Rory McIlroy	5	1875.3

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Scottie Scheffler	1221.3
Matt Kuchar	1071.9
Jimmy Walker	906.6
Hideki Matsuyama	874.5
Mark Hubbard	782.4
Jordan Spieth	657.6
Sean O’Hair	474.5
Tom Kim	468.4

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Tom Hoge	-760.1
Taylor Montgomery	-693.4
Maverick McNealy	-644.2
Ben Griffin	-632.5
Aaron Wise	-559.4
Trey Mullinax	-460.7
Justin Suh	-439.1
Davis Riley	-391.6

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the TPC Craig Ranch course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course during its two-year history at Nelson host are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.25	Greens in regulation
0.17	Driving distance
0.15	Sand saves
0.14	Putts per GIR

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Min Woo Lee	66.44
Scottie Scheffler	67.56
Taylor Montgomery	67.86
Tom Hoge	68.03
Will Gordon	68.16
Byeong Hun An	68.21
Tom Kim	68.27
Seamus Power	68.51

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Scott Brown	72.2
Kyle Stanley	71.7
Camilo Villegas	71.5
Kelly Kraft	71.4
Brian Stuard	71.3
Jim Herman	71.2
Michael Gligic	71.1
Max McGreevy	71.0

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and McKinney TX, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Kelly Kraft	Dallas TX	31
Jordan Spieth	Dallas TX	31
Zecheng Dou	Dallas TX	31
Scottie Scheffler	Dallas TX	31
Paul Haley	Dallas TX	31
Austin Smotherman	Dallas TX	31
Kramer Hickok	Dallas TX	31
Max McGreevy	Dallas TX	31
Harry Higgs	Dallas TX	31
Si Woo Kim	Dallas TX	31

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.371
I love this place	0.174
Ooh, that’s hot	0.132
Location, location, location	0.107