I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Justin Rose	0.721
Brooks Koepka	0.717
Rickie Fowler	0.595
Webb Simpson	0.585
Jason Day	0.584
Shane Lowry	0.569
Jordan Spieth	0.561
Hideki Matsuyama	0.559

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	1	2273.4
Scottie Scheffler	2	2265.5
Xander Schauffele	3	2089.4
Jon Rahm	4	2051.3
Rory McIlroy	5	1883.5
Sungjae Im	6	1716.3
Max Homa	7	1613.3
Justin Thomas	8	1604.9

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Will Zalatoris	14	1387.1
Daniel Berger	21	1213.2
Charles Howell	58	779.4
Cameron Tringale	62	766.7

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Xander Schauffele	1454.2
Russell Henley	1333.5
Wyndham Clark	1249.1
Sungjae Im	1220.2
Emiliano Grillo	1175.8
Rickie Fowler	1130.5
Patrick Rodgers	1019.4
Taylor Moore	986.3

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Rory McIlroy	-1277.5
Max Homa	-990.4
Taylor Montgomery	-849.3
Cameron Young	-791.0
Maverick McNealy	-712.1
Aaron Wise	-696.6
Dustin Johnson	-690.9
Kurt Kitayama	-675.8

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the typical PGA Championship course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.25	Putts per GIR
0.21	Driving distance
0.13	Shots gained in approach
0.12	Shots gained off the tee

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Jon Rahm	70.09
Min Woo Lee	70.19
Scottie Scheffler	70.51
Thorbjorn Olesen	70.66
Taylor Montgomery	70.71
Cameron Young	70.82
Max Homa	70.84
Tony Finau	70.87

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Kevin Kisner	75.6
Chez Reavie	75.0
Francesco Molinari	74.9
Luke Donald	74.8
Zach Johnson	74.5
Jimmy Walker	74.1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	73.9
Adam Schenk	73.8

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Rochester NY, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Corey Conners	Listowel ON	175
Brandon Wu	Scarsdale NY	250
Keegan Bradley	Woodstock VT	250
Jason Day	Columbus Oh	350
Alex Smalley	Greensboro NC	500
Ben Griffin	Chapel Hill NC	500
Nick Hardy	Northbrook IL	525
Mac Hughes	Charlotte NC	575
Harold Varner	Charlotte NC	575
Webb Simpson	Charlotte NC	575

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.372
I love this place	0.176
Ooh, that’s hot	0.133
Location, location, location	0.106