I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Jordan Spieth	0.882
Tony Finau	0.688
Brian Harman	0.579
Emiliano Grillo	0.450
Justin Rose	0.424
Charley Hoffman	0.421
Collin Morikawa	0.408
Rory Sabbatini	0.408

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2387.6
Sungjae Im	6	1669.8
Viktor Hovland	7	1642.7
Max Homa	9	1573.6
Jordan Spieth	12	1483.9
Tony Finau	14	1403.1
Collin Morikawa	17	1319.3
Sam Burns	19	1304.0

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Patrick Cantlay	2	2352.5
Xander Schauffele	3	2115.8
Rory McIlroy	4	2000.2
Jon Rahm	5	1990.3

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Tommy Fleetwood	1430.6
Emiliano Grillo	1179.4
Cameron Davis	1132.8
Sungjae Im	1029.6
Rickie Fowler	955.5
Taylor Moore	949.6
Carson Young	909.4
Jordan Spieth	897.6

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Max Homa	-1030.9
Taylor Montgomery	-801.6
Maverick McNealy	-712.5
Ben Griffin	-699.1
Alex Noren	-671.0
Collin Morikawa	-663.4
Keith Mitchell	-657.1
Scott Stallings	-639.3

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Colonial Country Club course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.18	Driving accuracy
0.16	Shots gained putting
0.14	Shots gained in approach
0.10	Shots gained around the green

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Collin Morikawa	69.34
Max Homa	69.44
Brendon Todd	69.66
Tom Hoge	69.74
Scottie Scheffler	69.75
Tony Finau	69.79
Justin Rose	69.85
Andrew Putnam	69.93

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Cameron Champ	72.8
Lucas Herbert	72.6
Zecheng Dou	72.3
Kyle Westmoreland	72.2
Callum Tarren	72.1
Luke List	72.1
Richy Werenski	72.1
Dylan Frittelli	72.1

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Ft. Worth TX, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Ryan Palmer	Colleyville TX	17
Taylor Moore	Dallas TX	33
Zecheng Dou	Dallas TX	33
Scottie Scheffler	Dallas TX	33
Harry Higgs	Dallas TX	33
Paul Haley	Dallas TX	33
Si Woo Kim	Dallas TX	33
Beau Hossler	Dallas TX	33
Kramer Hickok	Dallas TX	33
Austin Smotherman	Dallas TX	33
Jordan Spieth	Dallas TX	33

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.369
I love this place	0.175
Ooh, that’s hot	0.132
Location, location, location	0.106