22
May

Charles Schwab Challenge Power Ratings

Thomas Hawley 0 comment

Scottie Scheffler is back in the neighborhood and presumably in his own bed this week as the PGA Tour returns to the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Scheffler, also back in a familiar spot as no. 1-ranked player in the world, is a Dallas resident, from just east of the Colonial locale in Ft. Worth, and a product of the University od Texas, 200 miles farther south. Scheffler has been almost like a machine in grinding out top-10 finishes over the last six months, although undoubtedly he’d like to improve his percentage of wins. After his second-place tie in last week’s PGA Championship, Scheffler has appeared 14 times since November and his worst finish in the span is 12th in the Genesis. He has 11 top-10 finishes in that span with two wins, TPC and at Phoenix.

Jordan Spieth, who appears to be healthy again after sneaking in to the top 30 at the PGA with a final-round 69, and trouper Sungjae Im, who easily leads the world top 20 in appearances over the past two years, look like good alternative choices. Spieth has been in the top 10 at Colonial in seven of the past eight years, including the 2016 win. The bottom fell out for Im last week as he shot 80-73 to miss the cut by eight strokes. In the last two dozen or so events, he has only one other finish like that (110th at the this year’s Sony) and he has five top-10 finishes on Tour this year.

Collin Morikawa is on top of the list of players who appear to be the best fits for the Colonial course. Driving accuracy and shots gained putting have been the stats most heavily correlated with success in this event over the past eight years, with Morikawa in the top 5 percent in accuracy but below the midpoint in shots gained putting. Other good fits for Colonial would appear to be, in order, Max Homa, Brendon Todd, Tom Hoge, Scheffler, and Tony Finau. Guys who are playing really well but ranked a bit behind the top players include Tommy Fleetwood, Emiliano Grillo, and Cameron Davis. Fleetwood has three straight finishes in the top 20, includingt fifth at the Wells Fargo. Grillo’s missed cut at the PGA ended a string of three straight in the top 20, including fifth in Mexico and seventh in the Heritage. Davis was fourth in the PGA, his third top-10 since March.

Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler
Pick Player Power Number Actual Finish
1 Scottie Scheffler -14.9 3
2 Jordan Spieth 6.7 93
3 Sungjae Im 7.5 73
4 Viktor Hovland 13.8 16
5 Tony Finau 14.6 73
6 Max Homa 23.0 9
7 Tommy Fleetwood 25.6 73
8 Collin Morikawa 27.9 29
9 Justin Rose 29.3 12
10 Sam Burns 31.1 6
11 Rickie Fowler 32.9 6
12 Russell Henley 34.4 16
13 Denny McCarthy 34.7 73
14 Cameron Davis 35.4 73
15 Taylor Moore 37.5 93
16 Brian Harman 42.8 29
17 Chris Kirk 42.8 99
18 Keith Mitchell 43.9 DNP
19 Si Woo Kim 44.9 29
20 Brendon Todd 45.7 57
21 Kurt Kitayama 45.8 29
22 Emiliano Grillo 46.5 1
23 KH Lee 46.8 57
24 Tom Hoge 47.2 52
25 Taylor Montgomery 47.8 DNP
26 Nick Taylor 47.9 93
27 Harris English 48.3 12
28 Billy Horschel 48.6 40
29 Matthew NeSmith 49.5 48
30 Hayden Buckley 49.9 83
31 Patrick Rodgers 49.9 57
32 Beau Hossler 50.0 70
33 Eric Cole 50.5 83
34 Andrew Putnam 51.1 29
35 Christiaan Bezuidenhout 51.6 21
36 Davis Riley 51.7 83
37 Lucas Herbert 52.3 83
38 Sepp Straka 52.4 29
39 JT Poston 52.8 104
40 Alex Smalley 53.3 40
41 Adam Svensson 53.3 DNP
42 Justin Suh 53.4 16
43 Maverick McNealy 54.1 52
44 Byeong Hun An 54.4 21
45 Min Woo Lee 54.8 40
46 Stephan Jaeger 54.9 68
47 JJ Spaun 55.3 63
48 Ryan Fox 55.3 21
49 Ben Griffin 56.0 52
50 Vincent Norrman 56.2 48
51 Thomas Detry 56.7 21
52 Alex Noren 56.8 29
53 Scott Stallings 56.9 99
54 Nate Lashley 57.6 73
55 SH Kim 57.8 109
56 Mark Hubbard 58.1 9
57 Joel Dahmen 58.2 68
58 Kevin Kisner 58.6 109
59 Sam Ryder 59.2 93
60 Chez Reavie 59.4 40
61 Ryan Palmer 59.7 73
62 Aaron Rai 60.2 12
63 Michael Kim 60.4 6
64 CT Pan 60.4 DNP
65 Robby Shelton 60.5 29
66 Jimmy Walker 60.9 40
67 Carson Young 61.1 21
68 Kevin Streelman 61.2 9
69 Adam Schenk 61.3 2
70 Lee Hodges 62.0 29
71 Joseph Bramlett 62.0 83
72 Nick Hardy 62.1 48
73 Ben Taylor 62.1 83
74 Adam Long 62.4 73
75 Erik van Rooyen 62.4 112
76 Russell Knox 63.0 72
77 Danny Willett 63.0 93
78 Charley Hoffman 63.4 DNP
79 David Lipsky 63.5 16
80 Troy Merritt 63.6 83
81 David Lingmerth 63.8 116
82 Dylan Wu 64.2 99
83 Patton Kizzire 64.3 48
84 Luke List 64.7 57
85 Peter Malnati 64.7 29
86 Zach Johnson 65.5 116
87 Zac Blair 65.8 116
88 Scott Piercy 66.0 40
89 Dylan Frittelli 66.1 73
90 Ben Martin 66.2 57
91 Callum Tarren 66.3 109
92 Garrick Higgo 66.4 112
93 Harry Hall 66.5 3
94 Aaron Baddeley 66.5 21
95 Chad Ramey 66.6 12
96 Cameron Champ 66.6 63
97 Sean O’Hair 66.7 DNP
98 Will Gordon 66.8 52
99 Austin Eckroat 66.8 16
100 Andrew Novak 66.9 40
101 Rory Sabbatini 67.0 112
102 Akshay Bhatia 67.3 56
103 Matt Wallace 67.4 83
104 Tyler Duncan 67.6 104
105 Matthias Schwab 68.2 70
106 Greyson Sigg 68.5 104
107 Cameron Percy 68.5 DNP
108 Austin Smotherman 68.6 21
109 MJ Daffue 68.7 99
110 Harry Higgs 68.9 119
111 Justin Lower 69.4 57
112 Zecheng Dou 69.6 63
113 Richy Werenski 70.2 104
114 Henrik Norlander 70.2 112
115 Kramer Hickok 70.2 21
116 Kevin Tway 70.3 104
117 Pierceson Coody 70.6 83
118 Ryan Armour 70.6 DNP
119 Cody Gribble 70.8 63
120 Harrison Endycott 70.9 99
121 Luke Donald 72.0 40
122 Cole Hammer 72.6 93
123 Tyson Alexander 73.3 73
124 Paul Haley 73.4 5
125 Kyle Westmoreland 74.8 83
126 Erik Compton 76.8 63
127 Sam Stevens 76.8 29
128 Parker Coody 77.2 DNP
Michael Block late entry 120
More | Less
May 29, 2023. The accuracy number for these picks is 168. The average is 162. (An accuracy number of 1000 would indicate a perfect set of picks from first place through 16th.)

Players are listed in order of preference. The Power Number reflects the player’s Hawley Rating, fit for the course, past performance in this event, and recent performance in tour events. Observed Odds is the frequency that a player actually wins the event, given the listed Power Number and its margin behind the favorite. This differs from betting odds, which reflect take-out by the sports book and sentiment of the public. Course fit reflects the player’s statistical profile in relationship to the statistical profile of players who have been successful on this course in recent events.

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