I love this place!

Entrants ranked on history in the event. The value reflects the player’s success and number of years competed within the last eight years, weighted in favor of more recent seasons. A value of 1.000 would mean the player appeared every year and won every time. A value of about .715 puts the player in the top 1 percent of all players who have played the event at least once in the last eight seasons, a value of .335 puts a player in the top 10 percent.

Player	History
Patrick Cantlay	0.780
Jordan Spieth	0.669
Si Woo Kim	0.588
Xander Schauffele	0.573
Rory McIlroy	0.544
Billy Horschel	0.503
Kevin Streelman	0.493
Rickie Fowler	0.459

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Top of the heap

The top eight players (per the Hawley Ratings) among this event’s entries.

Player	Rank	Rating
Scottie Scheffler	1	2432.0
Patrick Cantlay	2	2353.2
Xander Schauffele	3	2125.8
Rory McIlroy	4	2008.0
Jon Rahm	5	1992.0
Viktor Hovland	6	1659.3
Sungjae Im	7	1626.5
Tyrrell Hatton	9	1599.2

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Sorry, can’t make it

The top four players (per the Hawley Ratings) who are not playing this event.

Player	Rank	Rating
Max Homa	8	1613.7
Cameron Smith	11	1508.0
Will Zalatoris	13	1415.3
Tony Finau	14	1363.5

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Ooh, that’s hot

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Upward change
Xander Schauffele	1468.4
Rickie Fowler	1282.9
Tyrrell Hatton	1280.4
Michael Kim	1210.7
Cameron Davis	1159.0
Emiliano Grillo	1052.6
Corey Conners	1039.1
Scottie Scheffler	1029.6

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Brr, that’s cold

Players are ranked by performance in their last four appearances in comparison with their current Hawley Rating.

Player	Downward change
Cameron Young	-1183.4
Taylor Montgomery	-802.1
Jason Day	-766.2
Davis Riley	-752.4
Collin Morikawa	-725.5
Maverick McNealy	-663.7
Keith Mitchell	-658.8
Ben Griffin	-650.0

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Certain skills required

Among a set of 10 PGA Tour and DP World Tour statistics that reflect physical characteristics of the Muirfield Village course, this table shows the four that have the highest unique correlation with player performance. Events on this course within the last eight years are considered, and the minimum is 80 player appearances. In mathematical terms, the number shown is the partial correlation coefficient.

Stat value	Statistic
0.19	Scrambling
0.17	Shots gained in approach
0.12	Shots gained off the tee
0.08	Shots gained around the green

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Location, location, location

Event entrants ranked by predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. based on the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Rory McIlroy	70.47
Scottie Scheffler	70.48
Patrick Cantlay	70.82
Collin Morikawa	70.90
Matt Kuchar	70.90
Jon Rahm	70.93
Tom Kim	70.95
Sungjae Im	71.07

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Anyplace but here

Event entrants ranked by worst predicted score per 18 holes based solely on “course fit” — i.e. the player’s current percentile standing in each of the four statistics shown above.

Course fit	Player
Kevin Kisner	73.5
Chad Ramey	73.3
Lucas Herbert	73.3
Zach Johnson	73.2
Stewart Cink	73.0
Tyson Alexander	72.9
Justin Suh	72.9
Justin Lower	72.9

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Staying close to home

Exempt entrants ranked by miles between their listed residence as of January 2023 and Dubin OH, the event host city.

Player	Residence	Distance
Jason Day	Columbus Oh	45
Justin Lower	Uniontown OH	100
Corey Conners	Listowel ON	250
Nick Hardy	Northbrook IL	275
Adam Schenk	Vincennes IN	275
Peter Malnati	Knoxville Ten	325
Scott Stallings	Knoxville Ten	325
Alex Smalley	Greensboro NC	350

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Mathematically speaking

The following table shows the correlations between player ranking in the above tables and their actual finish positions. In other words, to what extent does the ordering of players in the table correspond to the order of finish.

Statistic	Correlation to results
Top of the heap	0.369
I love this place	0.171
Ooh, that’s hot	0.130
Location, location, location	0.105